In August 2025, China’s exports grew by 4.8% compared to the same month last year, which is a decrease from the 8% growth of the previous year. When looking at US dollars, exports increased by 4.4%, falling short of the expected 5%. China’s trade surplus for August in US dollar terms was $102.33 billion, surpassing the predicted $99.2 billion. However, imports only grew by 1.3% year-on-year in US dollars, which was less than the forecast of 3%, despite a record import of 12.3 million metric tons of soybeans.

Yuan Terms and Year-to-Date Figures

In yuan terms, exports in August rose by 4.8%, and imports increased by 1.7% year-on-year. Overall, imports and exports for the year-to-date have reached 29.57 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% growth from last year. So far this year, the trade surplus with the US stands at $185.8 billion, with exports to the US dropping by 33% in August. Data from Citi shows that China’s container ship departures to the US fell by 24.9% year-on-year in the 15 days ending September 3, following a 12.4% drop the previous week. While the August trade data displays a larger surplus than expected, the overall figures raise concerns about the global economy. Both exports and imports grew less than anticipated and have significantly slowed down compared to the previous month. This could mean it’s wise to consider protective put options on major equity indices sensitive to global growth. The sharp dip in import growth, down to just 1.3%, signals weakening domestic demand in China. This aligns with the latest global manufacturing PMI data, which shows a contraction for the twelfth consecutive month, dropping to a reading of 48.7 in August 2025. This suggests building bearish positions on industrial commodities, especially copper futures, which have already seen an 8% decrease since earlier highs this year.

US Exports and Container Ship Departures

A staggering 33% year-on-year drop in exports to the U.S. is a significant warning sign, supported by the 24.9% decline in container ship departures. This indicates a major downturn in American consumer demand, meaning put options on U.S. retail and tech stocks that depend heavily on the Chinese supply chain could be profitable. We saw a similar pattern during the 2018-2019 trade disputes, which greatly affected those sectors. This data backs a bearish outlook for the Australian dollar, often seen as a reflection of Chinese economic health. With the U.S. Federal Reserve hinting at sustained high interest rates, shorting the AUD/USD currency pair seems like a good opportunity. The last time Chinese import data was this disappointing was late 2024, which led to a prolonged decline in the Aussie dollar. This widespread slowdown raises the chances of unexpected negative economic news in the next few weeks. In this situation, it seems wise to prepare for increased market volatility. Traders might consider buying VIX futures or out-of-the-money call options on volatility indices to protect their portfolios against potential spikes in uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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