The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has changed its job growth numbers, reporting a loss of 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025. This is the biggest downward adjustment ever recorded. White House press secretary Levitt commented on this change, emphasizing the need for new leadership to rebuild trust in BLS data. This data is vital for financial markets, businesses, policymakers, and families. Levitt’s statement raises concerns about the BLS’s reliability and criticizes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not adjusting interest rates accordingly.

Final Revision Expected

A final update on these figures is anticipated in February 2026. This revision process is important for understanding the accuracy of the economic data that affects many key decisions. This huge downward revision of -911,000 jobs alters our previous understanding of the economy’s strength over the past year. It now looks like the economy was in a weaker state than we thought, which makes the Fed’s earlier hawkish approach seem like a major mistake. We should prepare for a quick change in outlook, as fears of recession will likely dominate market thoughts. The White House is applying significant pressure on the Fed, leading to rising expectations for rate cuts. Now, markets are pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 50-basis point cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, up from just a 30% chance last week. This means trades that expect lower rates, such as long positions in SOFR and Fed Fund futures, should do very well.

Bond Market Implications

For those trading bonds, this is a clear sign to get ready for sharply falling yields, especially at the short end of the curve. We might see the 2-year Treasury yield drop significantly, possibly by over 75 basis points in the coming weeks, similar to the rapid changes during the regional banking stress in March 2023. This revision undermines the “higher for longer” belief that has been in play for months. Equity markets are now dealing with a tough choice between the hope of lower rates and the reality of a weaker economy that could hurt corporate profits. The increase in uncertainty suggests that volatility is the best strategy. We expect the VIX to rise above 25, making VIX call options or index puts on the S&P 500 a smart way to hedge against the growing risk of a market downturn. The most important issue at hand is the questioning of the BLS, which shakes confidence in all future government data. This means that upcoming economic reports, especially the monthly jobs number, will be viewed with skepticism and could lead to even greater market fluctuations. Traders should consider reducing their size before these releases or using options to manage their risk, as the credibility of the data is now uncertain. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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