The AUDUSD currency pair has exceeded its July 2025 high of 0.66247, reaching 0.6635, the highest point since November 8, 2024. This increase followed weak U.S. PPI data, which encouraged buyers to push prices higher. The rally began in September when the pair tested and held the 100-day moving average at 0.64808 on September 2. Monday’s low also bounced off the 61.8% retracement level at 0.65489, boosting buyers’ confidence. With the break above the 2025 high, buyers now have the upper hand on the daily chart.

Target Levels and Market Sentiment

Next, the targets to watch are the upward trendline near 0.6676 and the swing high of 0.6687 from November 7, 2024. If these levels are broken, the upward trend may continue. On a 4-hour chart, dropping below the July high could disappoint buyers, but sellers would need prices to fall between 0.6588 to 0.6598, and then 0.6559 to 0.6567, to regain control. Currently, buyers lead in the market, but their influence could fade if the upward movement stops. If they keep their momentum, the bullish trend should carry on. The AUDUSD breaking the 2025 high reflects today’s weaker-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The August 2025 PPI report showed a surprising 0.1% month-over-month decline, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease its approach to interest rates. This supports the recent technical breakout above the 0.66247 level. On the Australian side, strong commodity prices and solid trade data are boosting the currency’s strength. Recent data revealed that iron ore exports to China rose by 4% in August 2025, bringing spot prices to their highest level in nearly a year. This is a contrast to the economic slowdown we see in the United States.

Central Bank Policy Divergence

This mixed economic data hints at possible changes in central bank policies in the coming months. While the Fed may now consider pausing, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent meeting revealed ongoing concerns about domestic wage growth. A similar divergence was seen in late 2023, leading to a significant rally in the AUDUSD pair. In the upcoming weeks, derivative traders should interpret the movement above 0.66247 as a signal for potential gains. Buying call options with strike prices around the next target of 0.6675 could be a defined-risk way to capture ongoing momentum. The increased volatility also makes strategies like bull call spreads appealing for traders looking to lower premium costs. However, we should keep an eye on the old resistance level at 0.66247, which should now offer support. A decisive drop below this level may indicate a failed breakout, prompting traders to hedge long positions or consider speculative put options. The critical area to monitor for a significant shift in bullish sentiment lies between 0.6588 and 0.6598. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now