S&P 500 futures hit a snag at 6600 due to negative order flow and SPX options pinning below 6590–6600. While there was strength earlier in the week, it faded by Friday’s close. Although futures reached 6600, sellers stepped in to stop any further increase. From September 9–11, bullish trends were evident as value areas and VWAP rose each day. However, by Thursday, the 6600 level became a barrier, leading sellers to take control by Friday. This left prices fluctuating between 6600 and 6575, closing near the session’s low, which indicates potential weakness unless 6600 is quickly regained.

Options Market Activity

In the options market, the most active trades were for SPX calls at 6590, 6595, and 6600, with the index closing at 6,584.28. This pinning often happens around busy trading points. Therefore, the 6590–6600 range is a critical resistance zone that bulls must break. The VIX index, which closed at 14.75, shows calm in the market, but futures point to worry about upcoming volatility. September contracts are at 15.65, while early 2026 contracts hover around 21.5, suggesting traders are cautious about the long term. Key levels to watch include: – Resistance: 6595–6600 – Support: 6574–6579 A move above 6600 targets 6625 and 6640, while dropping below 6575 risks falling to 6540 and 6520. An OrderFlow Intel Score of –6.5 indicates seller strength. A rise above 6600 is crucial for a positive outlook. The S&P 500’s struggle to break 6600 signals caution for the upcoming weeks. Last week’s strong momentum vanished on Friday, as significant selling pressure emerged, pushing the market down from this crucial level. This shift means that until bulls can reclaim 6600 with confidence, a defensive or bearish stance is wise. This market hesitation lines up with recent economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2025 came in at 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.2%. With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming up on September 24, this higher inflation reading adds uncertainty about another potential rate hike. Thus, the rejection at 6600 is backed by fundamental factors, not just technical ones.

Trader Strategies and Market Outlook

In response, traders are preparing for a potential drop by buying put options with strike prices under the 6575 support level. Another favored strategy is selling call credit spreads with the short strike at or above 6600, which profits if the market stays under that ceiling. These trades directly bet on the continuation of the late Friday selling pressure. The VIX futures curve suggests that while the market appears calm now, larger players are hedging against possible future issues. The spot VIX is low at 14.75, but early 2026 contracts trade around 21.5, indicating increased demand for long-term protection. This hints that purchasing cheaper, longer-dated puts or VIX call options could be an effective way to safeguard a portfolio against a potential downturn later this year. This situation feels different from the strong market rally seen in late 2023 when there was confidence that the Fed would stop raising rates. After a strong performance throughout 2025, the market now shows signs of weariness as inflation concerns resurface. Therefore, we should approach this rejection at 6600 with more caution than usual. However, if buyers can push S&P 500 futures above 6600 with strong volume, the bearish outlook would change immediately. In that case, we would quickly adjust our strategy, potentially by buying calls aiming for the 6625 and 6640 levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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