Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday. In China, economic activity data for August 2025 is expected soon, with predictions showing only minor changes from July due to low local demand and export issues. Over the weekend, there were trade talks between the US and China, and updates are expected shortly. Also, indicative foreign exchange (FX) prices for September 15, 2025, have been released, with the Federal Reserve planning a 0.25% interest rate cut. Market trends suggest even deeper easing might happen in 2026.

S&P 500 Futures Analysis

The current analysis of S&P 500 Futures shows a rejection at 6600, signaling concentrated options activity. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies like MYX, WLD, and CRO are showing strong gains, indicating that traders are looking for volatility and possible profits. Foreign exchange trading comes with high risks and the potential for significant losses. InvestingLive shares economic data but does not endorse outside opinions. They remind users about the risks involved in investing and trading. With the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, this change seems already reflected in equity markets, which are currently near their highs. We remember a similar scenario during the 2019 easing cycle when the market movement was mainly influenced by the Fed’s forward guidance, not just the first rate cut. Thus, any indication from the dot plot suggesting fewer rate cuts for 2026 could lead S&P 500 futures to strongly reject the 6600 resistance level.

Economic Data and Currency Market Impacts

We are preparing for Monday’s release of Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, which is expected to show minimal improvement, indicating ongoing economic struggles. This ongoing weakness from China, which used to make up over 30% of Australia’s exports, continues to hurt the Australian dollar. A disappointing report could push the AUD/USD exchange rate below the 0.6600 support level soon. Ongoing US-China trade talks and new tariff threats against the EU create a lot of uncertainty, often resulting in increased market volatility. Looking back at the trade disputes from 2018 to 2019, the VIX index rose by over 40% following unexpected tariff announcements. Buying VIX call options may be a cost-effective way to hedge against potential losses in your portfolio due to any sudden geopolitical events this week. In the currency market, the possibility of new US tariffs is putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Even with the Fed cutting rates, the interest rate gap will likely favor the dollar, as the European Central Bank faces its own economic issues. We see this as a chance for traders to consider purchasing puts on the EUR/USD, betting on a return to the lows we saw earlier in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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