On September 15, 2025, North American trading highlighted several key economic events. The US Empire Fed released a figure of -8.7, much lower than the expected +5.0. Meanwhile, Canadian manufacturing sales for July rose by 2.5%, surpassing the 1.8% estimate. In business news, Cameco’s shares jumped as the US considered boosting its uranium stockpile, and a framework involving China and TikTok was set up. Ongoing talks about tariffs and possible trade actions between the US and China continue. In financial markets, gold prices rose by $39, hitting a record price of $3,681, while US 10-year yields fell slightly. Oil prices and major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, also showed gains. The Canadian dollar reached a 10-day high, thanks to positive manufacturing data easing worries about NAFTA disruptions. The rise in gold prices supported commodity exporters like Canada.

Federal Reserve Speculations

As markets anticipate potential Federal Reserve actions, speculation about a rate cut is increasing. This led to gains in risk assets but had a mixed effect on the US dollar. Investors are gearing up for a “sell the fact” situation, although a surprising 50 basis point rate cut now seems less likely. The focus this week is entirely on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With a 25 basis point cut already factored in, traders should look for a “sell the fact” reaction on Wednesday if the Fed’s message isn’t accommodating enough. It’s wise to use options to protect against a potentially hawkish surprise that could quickly dampen current optimism. The ongoing rally in stocks, especially the Nasdaq which logged its ninth straight gain, is reminiscent of previous tech surges, like the AI-driven increase in 2023 when the Nasdaq 100 rose over 50%. Many are using call options on the QQQ or individual tech stocks as part of their strategy. However, given the high premiums, implementing bull call spreads can help manage costs and limit risk.

Trading Strategies Amid Market Events

A weak US dollar is another major trend, falling as the likelihood of rate cuts strengthens. Shorting the dollar against commodity-backed currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar, seems appealing due to robust manufacturing data. Traders can use futures or put options on the USD/CAD pair to take advantage of expected dollar weakness. Gold’s rise to a record high of $3,681 is a classic response to a declining dollar and anticipated looser monetary policy. This move is similar to rallies seen during past Fed easing periods, following events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic response. Traders can buy call options on gold futures or ETFs to benefit from this uptrend while managing their capital at risk. As we approach the Fed meeting, implied volatility is high, making options more expensive. This situation opens opportunities for traders who think the market won’t react as dramatically post-announcement as expected. Strategies like iron condors on the S&P 500 could profit as volatility declines after Wednesday. Positive news about US-China relations is boosting the rally, but we must also consider the risk of new tariffs against the EU. While the spotlight is on the Fed, buying some inexpensive, out-of-the-money put options on European indices could serve as a low-cost hedge against any unexpected geopolitical events that might disrupt the current positive trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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