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    Some EUR/USD option expiries may stabilize prices below 1.1800 before the upcoming data.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Sep 16, 2025
    On September 16, FX option expiries are centered on EUR/USD, particularly between the 1.1750 and 1.1800 levels. This large area of expiries could impact price movement, likely keeping it below the 1.1800 mark, especially with US retail sales data due out later today.

    Rate Cut Expectations

    The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, which may limit any rise above the 1.1800 level. These expiries align with current market feelings until the Fed confirms a dovish stance. There is a significant volume of EUR/USD option expiries set for the 10am New York cut, heavily focused on the 1.1750 to 1.1800 range. This positioning is expected to keep the pair just below 1.1800 for the session. The market appears ready to handle this before reacting to major data releases later today. A key event approaching is the Federal Reserve’s meeting tomorrow. Markets have priced in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, following last month’s weak non-farm payrolls report, which showed job growth of only 95,000, and a core CPI reading that dropped to an annualized 2.3%. Traders seem reluctant to drive the dollar higher until they get confirmation of the Fed’s dovish message. This situation is different from the European Central Bank’s stance, which plans to keep rates steady, as indicated by last week’s flash PMI data for the Eurozone that exceeded expectations. After the aggressive rate hikes seen worldwide in 2022, this growing difference in policy is becoming a significant theme. It suggests potential strength for the euro against the dollar once these expiries are resolved.

    Trading Strategies

    For now, consider selling short-dated call options with a strike price just above 1.1800 to take advantage of the price being held down. Looking ahead, if the Fed confirms its dovish outlook tomorrow as expected, traders might position for a rise. One strategy could be to buy longer-dated call spreads targeting the 1.1900-1.2000 area for October, in anticipation of a possible breakout. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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