Crude oil inventories fell by 9.285 million barrels, much more than the expected drop of 0.857 million. Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.347 million barrels, while predictions had suggested a slight rise of 0.068 million. In contrast, distillate stocks increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected growth of 0.975 million. The drawdown at Cushing was 0.298 million barrels, down from last week’s drop of 0.365 million.

Private Data Analysis

Earlier private data reported a decrease of 3.420 million barrels in crude oil inventories, which is less than the current figures. Gasoline inventories also showed a decline of 0.691 million barrels, lower than the reported drop of 2.347 million by the EIA. After the data release, crude oil prices peaked at $64.61 but soon dropped to $64.26. This situation recalls market dynamics from September 2019, when government data showed a huge crude oil drop of over 9 million barrels. That figure was ten times higher than expected and indicated strong demand for crude and gasoline. Surprising data like this can create significant trading opportunities in the short term.

Current Market Scenario

As of mid-September 2025, demand is mixed. Recent EIA reports show small inventory increases instead of the expected drops, suggesting that the strong demand from summer may be fading as we approach the fall shoulder season. Concerns about global growth, especially due to a manufacturing slowdown in China, are impacting market sentiment more than weekly inventory reports. Looking back at the 2019 report, a notable detail was the large increase in distillates, which hinted at industrial weakness, even when consumer gasoline demand was high. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI figures are around the 50-point mark, indicating a stagnant or shrinking industrial sector. This means travel demand may stay strong, but the industrial and freight sectors are struggling, affecting fuel use. One key lesson from the 2019 event was how prices reacted; crude oil initially rose but quickly fell back. This suggested that the market had already anticipated tight supplies and that bearish signals like the distillate build were too significant to overlook. Today’s traders should note that a surprising bullish inventory report might not lead to a sustained rally if the broader economic outlook worsens. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 40-year lows, the market has lost a vital supply buffer, making it sensitive to disruptions. This means we can expect high volatility, and traders might find option strategies helpful for managing risk during these weekly data releases. A large inventory draw may create a temporary price spike, while an unexpected build could lead to a sharper decline due to economic fears. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now