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    Switzerland’s trade surplus fell to CHF 4.01 billion in August, down from a revised CHF 4.62 billion

    by VT Markets
    /
    Sep 18, 2025
    Switzerland’s trade surplus fell to CHF 4.01 billion in August, down from a revised CHF 4.62 billion in July. This change indicates a smaller trade balance for the country. Exports and imports impacted this figure, as the trade surplus was adjusted from CHF 4.59 billion to CHF 4.62 billion before August. These adjustments highlight fluctuations in trade during this time.

    Trade Surplus Decline

    The August trade surplus of CHF 4.01 billion is significantly lower than the revised CHF 4.62 billion from July. This reduction may signal challenges for the Swiss franc, leading to a need to reconsider bullish positions on it. This data also provides the Swiss National Bank (SNB) more room to adopt a cautious approach in its upcoming policy meeting. A decline in export trends eases the pressure on the SNB to keep interest rates high in order to curb a strong currency. The market is now anticipating a greater chance of a rate cut before the end of the year, a shift from the sentiment just a quarter ago. In the coming weeks, there may be opportunities to position for a rising EUR/CHF exchange rate. Buying call options on EUR/CHF with a strike price around 0.9900 could effectively leverage potential weakness in the franc, allowing for gains while clearly defining the maximum risk.

    Global Manufacturing Data Impact

    This trade strategy is backed by recent global manufacturing data. The PMIs for August 2025 show ongoing slowdowns in key Swiss export markets, especially in the Eurozone, which is having trouble bouncing back. Demand for Swiss goods is weakening internationally, reflecting the lower trade balance. Historically, a similar pattern occurred in 2023-2024 when weak trade figures preceded a more lenient approach from the SNB. This history indicates that the central bank pays close attention to the health of its export sector. Consequently, the latest data will likely significantly influence their policy discussions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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