The Eurozone’s current account surplus for July was €27.7 billion, down from €35.8 billion in June. This drop mainly came from a lower surplus in primary income.

Breakdown Of The Eurozone Surplus

Here’s how the surpluses break down: – Goods: €25 billion – Services: €12 billion – Primary income: €7 billion However, these surpluses were partly offset by a €16 billion deficit in secondary income. The European Central Bank (ECB) released this data with a slight delay. The smaller current account surplus in July 2025 shows the Eurozone’s weakening external position. This hints at less demand for the Euro. Therefore, it’s wise to prepare for a potential drop in the currency in the coming weeks. Consider short positions on EUR/USD through futures or CFDs to reflect this view.

Strategies For Trading The Euro

If you’re using options, buying EUR/USD put options that expire in October 2025 provides a clear, risk-defined way to trade this expected decline. The Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) increased to 8.5 this month, up from a low of 7.2 in August 2025, indicating that the market expects more volatility. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads could also be a good strategy to earn premium while keeping a bearish outlook. This data comes at a challenging time for the European Central Bank, also dealing with the August 2025 inflation rate of a persistent 2.6%. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates steady due to a strong labor market. This creates a clear difference in policy favoring the US dollar. As a result, the case for a lower EUR/USD exchange rate strengthens, with the rate already having dropped 1.2% in the past month. Additionally, other recent data confirms a slowdown. For instance, German factory orders fell for the third consecutive month in July 2025, according to the latest figures from Destatis. This situation resembles the period of 2014-2015 when differing central bank policies caused the Euro to weaken significantly against the dollar. Therefore, it’s essential to keep an eye on upcoming sentiment indicators, such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, for further confirmation of this trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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