US Economic Data and FOMC Speeches

Traders are now focusing on US economic reports, including the JOLTS Job Openings data and the Consumer Confidence Index. Speeches from important FOMC members are expected to impact USD demand during the North American session, which could affect the NZD/USD pair. The NBS Non-manufacturing PMI measures business activity in China’s non-manufacturing sector through surveys of top executives. A PMI reading of 50 means no change from the previous month. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while those below 50 suggest decline, which can impact the Renminbi (CNY). This indicator is important because it reflects the performance of China’s service sector, influencing the global FX market. The NZD/USD is currently struggling to rise above the 0.5800 level. Mixed economic signals from China mean we are not getting the boost needed. While there has been a slight improvement in manufacturing, stagnation in services is holding us back. For two quarters in 2025, the 0.5850 level has acted as a key barrier, showing that a significant push is required for a genuine breakout. China’s slowing services activity is a concern as it suggests weakening domestic demand, which directly affects New Zealand’s economy. In August 2025, Chinese retail sales rose only 2.5%, falling short of expectations. This reflects fragile consumer spending, indicating that underlying weakness from New Zealand’s largest trading partner may hinder any strong rally for the Kiwi dollar.

Impact of US Government Shutdown Concerns

Meanwhile, the US dollar faces challenges from the possibility of a government shutdown and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts. The government shutdown in late 2018 led to sharp short-term volatility, so we should brace for unpredictable price movements. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows over an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the November 2025 meeting, putting pressure on the dollar. This tug-of-war between a weaker Kiwi and a declining dollar suggests that volatility might be undervalued in the weeks ahead. We should explore options strategies, such as long straddles, which would benefit from significant price movements in either direction, no matter what triggers them. This strategy allows us to capitalize on increasing uncertainty rather than betting on a specific direction. All eyes will be on the upcoming US JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence data for immediate direction. Last month’s JOLTS report in August 2025 showed a surprising decline in job openings, reinforcing concerns about a slowing US economy. Another weak reading this week could strengthen expectations for Fed cuts and help push the NZD/USD past the 0.5800 resistance. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now