EUR/JPY has main support at the 50-day EMA, located at 172.47. The 14-day RSI is below 50, signaling a bearish trend. If the pair returns to the ascending channel, it could suggest a bullish outlook. The EUR/JPY ended its three-day decline, trading near 172.60 during the Asian session on Thursday. Its position beneath the ascending channel indicates a shift from bullish to bearish. However, re-entering the channel may show a temporary breakout, keeping the overall upward trend alive.

Bearish Sentiment

The bearish sentiment is strong, with the 14-day RSI under 50 and the pair trading below the nine-day EMA. Immediate support is at the 50-day EMA of 172.47. If it drops below this level, it could test the July 31 low of 169.72. Returning to the channel could enhance short-term momentum, allowing tests of the nine-day EMA at 173.59 and possibly moving toward the channel’s upper boundary at 175.30, near the July 2024 peak of 175.43. The major currencies show slight changes, with the Euro performing best against the Canadian Dollar. The EUR/USD shows minimal movement compared to other currencies in the table. As of October 2nd, 2025, we see the EUR/JPY pair testing a critical support level around the 50-day moving average of 172.47. The pair’s recent upward trend has been broken, creating uncertainty in the market. This suggests a short-term bearish outlook is developing.

Possible Rebound

The current situation aligns with a cautious view. Recent data revealed that Eurozone inflation decreased to 2.5% in September 2025, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to take strong action. With the Relative Strength Index below 50, sellers hold the momentum. Traders anticipating a bearish trend might think about buying put options with a strike price below 172.00, targeting the three-month low of 169.72 from July 31st. Nonetheless, a sharp reversal may occur if this breakdown proves false. If the pair re-enters the ascending channel, it would suggest the longer-term uptrend—reaching a high of 175.43 in July 2024—remains strong. This could be supported by the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to tighten its policy, even with core inflation for Japan in August 2025 at 3.0%. For those expecting a rebound, buying call options above the 172.50 support level could be a smart tactic. A successful bounce could first aim for the 173.59 level, which is the 9-day moving average. If bullish momentum builds, we might see a push toward the upper channel boundary around 175.30 in the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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