The Euro might test its late-September low of 1.1645. It’s unclear if it will drop below this level. Recently, the Euro fell to 1.1649 but bounced back to close at 1.1709. In the short term, the Euro is likely to trade between 1.1690 and 1.1730. Analysts have noted a downward trend, but it hasn’t been strong enough for a lasting decline.

Expected Movements

In the coming weeks, we expect the Euro to move between 1.1675 and 1.1790. Although it recently dipped below 1.1675, the downward pressure hasn’t been strong enough to maintain this trend. For the Euro to keep falling, it must remain below the resistance level of 1.1755. There’s ongoing scrutiny about whether it can break the support level of 1.1645. The recent bounce from the 1.1649 low may have stopped the immediate downward pressure, indicating that the Euro might trade sideways for now. We predict a narrow range between 1.1690 and 1.1730 shortly. For traders, this suggests that making aggressive new bets against the Euro might be too soon until clearer signals appear. However, the Euro’s weakness is highlighted by fundamental data, which suggests a stronger dollar. Last Friday’s US jobs report (October 3, 2025) showed 210,000 jobs were added, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s strong stance. In contrast, German factory orders unexpectedly fell by 0.8% in August, negatively affecting the Eurozone outlook.

Trading Strategies

In the coming weeks, the 1.1755 level will act as a strong resistance point, making it a key focus for traders. Selling out-of-the-money call options or setting up bear call spreads with strikes above this level could be a smart strategy. This approach takes advantage of time decay and the likelihood that any price increases will not surpass this important resistance. For those expecting a more significant drop, the target remains the late-September low of 1.1645. Buying put options with a strike price at or below 1.1650 offers a straightforward way to prepare for a potential breakdown. A bear put spread could also be an option to reduce upfront costs while targeting this specific support level. We recall similar market behavior in the third quarter of 2023, where a phase of consolidation at a key support was followed by a significant drop for the EUR/USD. The current downward momentum, while not decisive yet, resembles that historical trend. This past behavior suggests that patience may be necessary before the pair takes its next large step downward. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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