The price of copper has jumped to around $10,800 per ton, reaching its highest point since last May. This rise is similar to what we saw last year, when concerns over mining disruptions, especially after a major mine closed in Panama, drove prices up. However, those earlier worries didn’t cause real production problems, as Chinese copper smelters maintained steady output, despite discussions about limiting capacity. Consequently, prices corrected in the latter half of the year. This suggests that current price levels may not accurately represent market conditions. Doubts arise again about whether the current copper prices can hold. The FXStreet Insights Team has gathered thoughts from experts, highlighting skepticism about today’s market prices. The content serves as a reminder to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. We’re noticing a similar trend in the copper market, with prices nearing $10,800 per ton, reminiscent of the spike from May 2024. Just as we were cautious then, we should be careful now about whether these prices are justified by market fundamentals. The chance of a price correction, similar to what we experienced in the second half of 2024, seems high. Recent data shows that combined copper inventories from LME and SHFE have actually risen by 8% over the past month to 245,000 tonnes. This is unexpected in a tight market and suggests that physical demand isn’t keeping up with rising prices. This situation differs from early 2024 when inventories were consistently decreasing. Moreover, smelter production in China remains strong. September 2025 figures show a year-over-year production increase of 4.5%. Even though there have been talks about possible coordinated cuts, actual production hasn’t declined. This strong output reflects the 2024 scenario, where discussions of cuts did not result in reduced production. Looking at market activities, the latest Commitment of Traders report indicates that speculative net-long positions are at a 20-month high. This suggests that the current price rally is largely driven by financial investors rather than industrial buyers. Such crowded positions are often prone to quick reversals when market sentiments shift. For traders in derivatives, this may indicate an opportunity to consider bearish positions in the coming weeks. Buying put options with November or December 2025 expirations could be a way to hedge against a potential pullback towards the $9,500 level. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money call options or creating bear call spreads could benefit from declining volatility if prices plateau.

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