Markets are stable as the September US labor report gets postponed due to the government shutdown. Attention is on the strength of the labor market and inflation trends, which will shape the Federal Reserve’s future decisions. Tonight’s FOMC minutes might reveal recent internal discussions but are not expected to influence the dollar. Some members are worried about making further rate cuts given recent economic conditions, while others still support a more relaxed approach.

Differences Within The FOMC

The differing opinions within the FOMC are normal, and views can change with economic shifts. However, without new labor data, the spotlight is on what’s next rather than what was said in past FOMC meetings. With the delay in data collection and its effects on labor reports, these issues are more critical for the dollar’s future than the upcoming FOMC minutes. Until we have new information, revisiting old minutes may not offer clear guidance. The government shutdown has put key labor data on hold, keeping markets in a wait-and-see mode. Short-term volatility will likely stay low, making it tough to make directional trades. For instance, implied volatility on front-month EUR/USD options has dropped below 6.0%, indicating that the market is holding out for a real trigger before making moves.

Treat FOMC Minutes As Old News

It’s best to regard tonight’s FOMC minutes as outdated. They are unlikely to change the US dollar’s course. We already know the committee has different perspectives, and the minutes will just reiterate what members like Goolsbee and Miran have previously indicated. The market’s future direction relies on new data, not on a meeting recap from weeks ago. The main focus remains on the strength of the labor market and how it affects inflation. We are eager to see if the robust job growth from the second quarter of 2025, where we averaged about 190,000 new jobs each month, has persisted. This delayed report is key to understanding the Fed’s future trajectory. This situation is similar to the government shutdown we faced back in 2013. Back then, the dollar stayed within a narrow range until delayed non-farm payroll data was released, leading to a significant breakout. We can expect the same kind of buildup of pressure now. With no new data at the moment, the current calm could be a chance to prepare for the eventual release of information. It may be wise to explore strategies that could benefit from a rapid increase in volatility once the job numbers come out in the weeks ahead. The possibility of skewed figures due to the shutdown adds to the uncertainty, increasing the chances of a strong market reaction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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