Markets are quiet due to the lack of major U.S. data releases while the government remains shut down. The delay in the September labor report has traders focused on the resilience of the labor market and trends in inflation, as these will help predict the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting might not affect the dollar much. Some FOMC members, like Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, are cautious about further interest rate cuts, but opinions can change. The future of the market relies on how inflation and the labor market perform.

Impact of Delayed Labor Report

Because the labor report is delayed and the shutdown is ongoing, reacting to past FOMC statements from the minutes is not very useful. The labor reports may be affected by the delay and layoffs of government workers, making them more significant for the dollar than the FOMC minutes. Current and future economic conditions, especially inflation and employment, will play a bigger role in the Fed’s strategy. The latest September 2025 inflation report shows a stubborn Consumer Price Index at 3.1%, leaving us in a waiting game. Markets are stable as we look for clearer signals about the economy’s direction, particularly from the labor market. This uncertainty makes it hard to make big trades in the coming weeks. Adding to the complexity is the recent national transport strike, expected to heavily impact October’s jobs data. A similar situation happened during the U.S. government shutdown in 2013, leading to weeks of confusion due to postponed and misleading data. We should be ready for a Non-Farm Payrolls report that might not accurately reflect the economy’s true strength.

Strategies for Derivative Traders

For derivative traders, this situation suggests that buying volatility could be a smart move. We might consider using straddles or strangles on major indices or currency pairs, aiming for a significant price shift once the noisy data is finally released and clarified. This strategy allows us to profit from the market’s reaction without betting on a specific direction. In this data scarcity, we should pay less attention to comments from individual Fed members or the minutes of their last meeting. History shows that official statements lose relevance when the key data they depend on is missing or unreliable. What will truly impact the dollar and other assets is the future performance of the labor market and inflation, not outdated information. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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