Understanding WTI Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are currently under pressure, trading below $61.00 for the second day. This drop is due to reduced geopolitical worries. Easing tensions between Israel and Hamas, along with concerns about a potential US government shutdown impacting demand, contribute to this decline. From a technical standpoint, WTI prices are facing resistance near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. This suggests a downward trend. Prices could weaken further toward the $60.25-$60.20 range, with $60.00 being a critical level. If this level is broken, more bearish sentiment may follow. If WTI recovers, it may encounter resistance around $61.55-$61.60. To target $63.00, it will need to break above the 200-period EMA near $62.35. WTI oil, known for its low gravity and sulfur content, comes from the US and is distributed from the Cushing hub, which plays a significant role in international oil markets. Key factors influencing WTI prices include supply and demand, global growth, political instability, OPEC decisions, and the strength of the US Dollar. Weekly inventory data from API and EIA indicates changes in supply and demand, impacting prices, with EIA data generally seen as more reliable.

Market Trends in 2025

Today, on October 10, 2025, the market looks very different than in the past. We recall when WTI struggled below $61, but now prices are steady above $85 per barrel. The negative outlook from earlier years has shifted to a focus on tight supply and strong demand. Concerns about a US government shutdown hurting demand have lessened. Instead, last week’s jobs report revealed that the US added 210,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations and showing a strong economy that encourages energy use. Although the Chinese manufacturing PMI was mixed at 50.2, it still suggests expansion, easing fears of a global slowdown. Geopolitical tensions, which had previously eased, are now a major factor driving prices higher. Recent skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz have made the market nervous about potential supply disruptions. Additionally, the September OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current production cuts through the end of the year, tightening the balance of global supply and demand. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed an unexpected crude oil inventory decrease of 3.1 million barrels, while analysts had expected a slight increase. This indicates that demand is outpacing supply more than anticipated, suggesting that prices may continue to rise. The previous technical outlook has flipped, with the $82 level now serving as strong support. Given these circumstances, derivative traders should consider bullish strategies. Buying call options with strike prices around $90 for November or December 2025 contracts could be a way to benefit from potential price increases. For a more cautious approach, bull call spreads can be used to limit costs while still aiming for higher prices near the next resistance level around $92. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now