The General Administration of Customs will publish China’s trade data for August at 03:00 GMT on Monday. Analysts expect the trade balance for September to dip to $98.96 billion, down from $102.33 billion. Exports are predicted to rise by 6.0%, while imports are expected to increase by 1.5%. Since China’s economy affects global markets, this data will have an impact on the Forex market. The AUD/USD pair is trending upward ahead of the announcement, recovering from previous losses related to US-China trade tensions.

Impact on the Australian Dollar

If the data exceeds expectations, it may lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), breaking through resistance levels at 0.6525, 0.6560, and potentially reaching 0.6620. On the downside, the support level is at the October 10 low of 0.6472, and further declines could hit 0.6424 and 0.6400. The Chinese trade balance, which shows the difference between exports and imports, influences the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the global economy. Generally, a favorable trade balance helps strengthen the CNY. Australia’s interest rates, set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, affect the AUD. Other factors include Iron Ore prices, the health of China’s economy, and Australia’s Trade Balance. A strong Trade Balance tends to boost the AUD due to increased foreign demand for Australian exports. Today, October 13, 2025, we will soon see the Chinese trade balance data, with expectations for a slight decrease in the trade surplus to $98.96 billion. A number better than expected could indicate a strengthening Chinese economy.

Potential Market Movements

How China’s economy performs significantly impacts the Australian dollar since China is Australia’s largest trading partner. When China’s economy is strong, it buys more Australian goods, like iron ore, which raises demand for the Australian currency. Therefore, a positive trade report from China usually strengthens the Australian dollar. Looking at the broader context, the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate steady at 4.35% for most of 2025, aiming to balance inflation and growth. Meanwhile, iron ore prices have remained strong, recently around $115 per tonne, helping support the Aussie dollar. A positive surprise in Chinese import figures could lead to a notable increase. If the trade data is stronger than expected, we may see an uptick in the AUD/USD pair. The first key level to watch is the 100-day moving average at about 0.6525. A breakthrough could lead to the next resistance levels at 0.6560 and 0.6620 in the coming weeks. On the other hand, a disappointing report may raise ongoing concerns about China’s economic recovery seen in 2023 and 2024. This could push the AUD/USD pair down toward its recent low of 0.6472. If the selling pressure continues, major support levels would then be at 0.6424 and the psychological level of 0.6400. Over the next few weeks, the trend of this data will be more significant than any single release. We recall the volatility experienced during the peak of the US-China trade war, so any signs of renewed weakness may make traders cautious. We will monitor whether this data confirms a stable recovery or points to further challenges in the region. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now