Resistance Levels and Market Insights

The Brazilian Real is experiencing slight pressure, with USD/BRL staying above 5.27. Technical indicators hint at a possible rise, as support remains strong at 5.37. Analysts from Société Générale note a positive shift in USD/BRL once it surpasses this support level. After hitting a temporary low around 5.27, USD/BRL has bounced back. It has crossed a declining trend line from the past few months, with the daily MACD showing reduced downward momentum. If there’s a short-term drop, the area around 5.37 could provide support, possibly allowing the rise to continue. Upcoming resistance points to watch include the 200-day moving average around 5.63 and May highs of 5.73/5.76. The FXStreet Insights Team, made up of journalists, shares market observations from experts, combining insights from various analysts and commercial notes.

Building Momentum for the US Dollar

The US dollar is gaining positive momentum against the Brazilian real, staying above the 5.37 support level. Technical signals, like breaking a multi-month downtrend, suggest an upward path is likely. This signals that the recovery from last month’s low near 5.27 still has room to grow. This outlook is backed by recent economic data. The US non-farm payrolls report on October 3rd, 2025, showed an increase of 265,000 jobs, beating expectations of 190,000. This boosts dollar strength. Meanwhile, Brazil’s central bank hinted at ending its rate hikes after September 2025 saw inflation at 3.9%, making the real less appealing to carry traders. For those expecting USD/BRL to keep rising, buying call options is a simple strategy. You might consider purchasing calls with strike prices near the next major resistance levels, like 5.60 or 5.70, expiring in December 2025 or January 2026. This provides enough time for the anticipated upward trend to develop. Traders with a more cautious outlook might use bull call spreads to reduce upfront costs. Another tactic is selling out-of-the-money put options below the critical 5.37 support level. This strategy collects premium, betting that the pair won’t fall below this new support in the coming weeks. We’ve seen similar movements before, with the pair hitting highs around 5.73/5.76 in May. Historical volatility reminds us of sharp spikes above 5.80 during 2020-2021. These past trends suggest that a sustained rally to these higher levels is possible if current momentum continues. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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