**China’s Oil Import Trends** China is still importing a large amount of crude oil. In September, imports were 47.25 million tons, which equals 11.5 million barrels per day. This is a 3.9% increase from last year, but it’s down 4.5% from August due to calendar effects. During the first nine months of the year, oil imports in China rose by 2.6% compared to the same period last year. One reason for this increase is reserve purchases, which help manage the growing oil supply. However, tight import quotas are affecting independent refineries, limiting their ability to buy from Russia and Iran. It’s crucial for these reserve purchases to continue to maintain market stability in light of a potential oversupply. Oil prices have recently recovered. The U.S. is open to discussing trade terms. Organizations like the FXStreet Insights Team provide valuable observations and expert analysis for a clearer understanding of the market. **China’s Influence on Oil Prices** China’s strong crude oil imports are helping to stabilize prices and prevent larger declines. In September 2025, their imports of 11.5 million barrels per day indicate a healthy demand for oil, despite a slight decrease from August. This robust buying is absorbing much of the current excess supply. However, this demand is somewhat fragile. Most of it is for building strategic reserves rather than immediate use in the economy. The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 was only 50.9, showing that China’s industrial activities are not at full capacity. This makes the market heavily reliant on China’s continued stockpiling, which could change suddenly. This creates a tense situation in the market. The International Energy Agency’s latest report suggests global oil demand growth will slow to below 1 million barrels per day in 2026. This forecast adds pressure on China to keep purchasing surplus oil. A decrease in their reserve buying could quickly lead to oversupply and lower prices. On the supply side, we need to keep in mind the OPEC+ production cuts that were extended through 2024 and are still mainly in place. These cuts are a significant reason why prices have not plummeted despite declining global demand. Traders should view this as a conflict between OPEC+’s managed supply and China’s uncertain, reserve-driven demand. Given these dynamics, traders may want to use strategies that benefit from volatility in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money puts near support levels around $78 for WTI might be a good option, as OPEC+’s actions are likely to prevent a dramatic price drop. Additionally, selling calls near recent highs could also be profitable since weak demand is expected to limit any significant price increase. It’s important to note that the U.S. has been active in the market, resembling its actions in 2024 when it was refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These government purchases from both the U.S. and China create temporary price support. Any signs of a slowdown in this government buying could be a strong bearish signal for crude oil derivatives. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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