The Australian Dollar (AUD) is projected to trade between 0.6460 and 0.6520. Analysts at UOB Group believe this range may hold, but further declines could occur, with 0.6440 as the next target. Recently, the AUD fell to 0.6443 but quickly bounced back to 0.6485, reducing immediate downward pressure. Still, there is a chance it could approach 0.6440 if the resistance at 0.6545 holds.

Focus on Resistance Levels

In the next one to three weeks, we will closely watch if the AUD will drop to 0.6440. There hasn’t been a significant increase in downward momentum, but it could happen if important resistance levels remain intact. This analysis is drawn from insights by the FXStreet Insights Team, based on market expert observations. Currently, the Aussie dollar is trading within a narrow range between 0.6460 and 0.6520. However, the overall trend suggests it might be heading lower soon, with 0.6440 being a critical level to monitor. This negative outlook is reinforced by differing central bank policies. The latest Australian CPI data for September 2025 showed a softer increase of 3.1%, leading many to think the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finished raising interest rates. Meanwhile, recent U.S. labor market data remains strong, supporting a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Additionally, iron ore prices, a major Australian export, have fallen below $100 per tonne this month due to worries about weakening industrial demand in China. This drop in commodity prices directly impacts the Australian dollar’s value. As long as the AUD stays under the strong resistance level of 0.6545, it seems likely to decrease.

Traders’ Risk Management Strategies

Given the sharp rebound from the 0.6443 low, traders might think about buying put options to limit risk while still gaining some downside exposure. A bear put spread could also be useful, allowing them to profit if the AUD dips to 0.6440 while keeping a defined maximum loss. These strategies appear wise as long as the 0.6545 resistance stays intact. Looking back, the AUD/USD pair previously reached lower levels, dropping into the 0.63s in late 2023 due to similar global economic concerns. This history indicates that breaking below 0.6440 could happen if downward momentum increases. The recent fluctuations emphasize the importance of utilizing options for risk management instead of taking outright short positions in this volatile market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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