The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6480 and 0.6530. Analysts at UOB Group foresee further declines, with 0.6440 being the next key level to watch. In the past 24 hours, the AUD dropped to 0.6443 before recovering. It was expected to trade within the range of 0.6460 to 0.6520 and ultimately moved between 0.6482 and 0.6523. Current indicators show flat momentum, suggesting the AUD will continue range-trading between 0.6480 and 0.6530.

Potential For Further Declines

Over the next 1-3 weeks, the AUD shows potential for further declines. Although it hit a low of 0.6443, there hasn’t been a notable increase in downward momentum. As long as it stays below the strong resistance of 0.6545, there’s a chance it will test the 0.6440 mark. The expectation of potential declines remains in place. These insights come from the FXStreet Insights Team, who gather market information from commercial and other analysts to offer a well-rounded market view. The Australian dollar is currently trading in a narrow range, expected to remain mostly between 0.6480 and 0.6530. While immediate downward pressure has eased, the overall outlook still points to possible weakness. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, indicating uncertainty among both buyers and sellers in the short term. This sideways trend occurs amid a clear policy difference between the Australian central bank and the US Federal Reserve. Recent job and inflation data from September 2025 support the Fed’s stance of “higher for longer” interest rates, which strengthens the US dollar. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its cash rate at 4.35% for several months, showing less urgency in tightening policy.

Commodity Prices Pressure

The Australian dollar is also under pressure from falling key commodity prices. Iron ore has recently dropped below $100 per tonne due to a decrease in industrial demand forecasts from China. As Australia’s largest export, lower iron ore prices directly impact trade terms and the currency’s value. This fundamental challenge makes any significant rally in the AUD/USD unlikely in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, it may be wise to sell options to collect premium. Selling call options with strike prices at or above the strong resistance level of 0.6545 can take advantage of the expected range and the low chance of a sharp upward move. This strategy profits from both time decay and a lack of rallies. Looking ahead, we should be ready for a potential test of the 0.6440 support level. If the current floor at 0.6480 breaks, buying put options or establishing bearish put spreads could provide a defined-risk way to profit from a further decline. This is something to monitor as long as prices stay below the resistance of 0.6545. This price behavior is similar to the choppy trading seen in late 2023, when divergence in central bank policies kept the AUD/USD low for an extended period. During that time, any rallies were met with selling, benefiting those positioned for continued range-trading with a downward trend. A move above the 0.6545 level would require a reassessment of the current bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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