Crude oil processing in China hit a two-year high in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Refineries processed 62.7 million tons, which is about 15.3 million barrels per day. This is nearly 1 million barrels per day more than last year. Oilchem also reported an increase in refinery use after maintenance at several facilities. In the first nine months of the year, crude oil processing reached 550 million tons, averaging 14.75 million barrels per day. This is a 3.7% increase from last year, suggesting we may see overall growth after a 3.6% decline last year.

Market Insights And Analysis

This article comes from the FXStreet Insights Team, which gathers market insights from various experts, including commercial and internal analysts. China’s crude processing surge to 15.3 million barrels per day shows strong oil demand. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s activity indicates that the region’s economic growth is better than many forecasts suggest. This is a key sign that global demand will stay strong as we move into the last quarter of the year. Recent U.S. inventory reports support this trend. Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprising drop of 2.8 million barrels from commercial crude stockpiles, bringing inventories to their lowest in three months. This tighter supply in the West, along with rising demand in the East, has pushed December WTI futures contracts above $88 per barrel. Given these factors, it makes sense to prepare for rising oil prices in the next few weeks. Traders could consider buying call options that expire in January 2026, with target prices of $90 or $95 for WTI. This approach allows for participation in a potential year-end price increase while managing risk.

Positioning For Future Trends

Reflecting on the softness of the market in summer 2025, when recession fears influenced sentiment, we see that continued demand from China offers strong support. This indicates that consumption of industrial and transport fuels is picking up speed. Such demand should create a safety net for prices, helping avoid the volatility we experienced earlier this year. With OPEC+ indicating a commitment to maintain current production levels at its next meeting, supply appears stable. Thus, any price changes in the near term will likely depend on demand news. This latest data from Chinese refineries is the most significant demand signal we’ve seen this quarter, suggesting a positive outlook is warranted. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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