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    UOB Group analysts predict EUR/USD will fluctuate between 1.1580 and 1.1625 with a downward trend.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Oct 23, 2025
    The Euro (EUR) is expected to move between 1.1580 and 1.1625. In the long term, it might decline, possibly revisiting the level of 1.1540. On Tuesday, the EUR fell to a low of 1.1597 but closed slightly higher at 1.1610 on Wednesday. This small bounce suggests that the EUR is likely to stay in the range of 1.1585 to 1.1625 instead of dropping further. Recently, the EUR has shown some downward momentum. It could keep declining unless it breaks above the resistance level of 1.1660. Predictions indicate that the EUR might retest the recent low of 1.1540. This analysis comes from UOB Group’s FX analysts, Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia. They base their forecasts on recent price activities and possible market changes. Currently, we expect the Euro to stabilize within a narrow range, between 1.1580 and 1.1625. However, there is increasing downward pressure, similar to what we saw in late 2021. This pressure stems from the differences in monetary policy between a strict Federal Reserve and a cautious European Central Bank. The latest data from October 2025 supports the negative outlook for the Euro in the coming weeks. The US Core CPI remains high at 2.9%, while the Eurozone’s is lower at 2.2%, allowing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. Additionally, strong US GDP growth of 2.5% in Q3 contrasts with the recent decline in German industrial production, impacting the Euro negatively. For derivative traders, this environment is favorable for buying puts or setting up bear put spreads over the next one to three weeks. The 1.1540 level, a notable support zone previously tested, serves as a reasonable initial target. The bearish trend remains as long as the Euro does not break the strong resistance at 1.1660. With current low implied volatility, option premiums are appealing for this strategy. Traders should watch for a sustained move above the 1.1660 resistance, which would signal the need to exit short positions. A break above this level would suggest that the downward trend we are monitoring has not occurred.

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