The UK will release its labour market report soon. The Claimant Count Change for October is expected to rise by 20.3K, up from 25.8K in September. Last month, the Claimant Count Rate was 4.4%. The report will be out at 07:00 GMT. In the currency market, the GBP/USD pair is feeling pressure as the USD gains strength. This change comes as people anticipate a possible end to the US government shutdown. The US Senate recently passed a funding bill with a 60-40 vote, but it still needs approval from the House.

GBP/USD Recent Performance

On Monday, GBP/USD held onto its recent gains, marking a four-day winning streak. With US markets slowing down for Veterans Day, some experts think investors will remain optimistic if the government shutdown ends. In the UK, wages are expected to dip slightly for the three months ending in September, while the ILO Unemployment Rate might rise to 4.9%. During the North American session, GBP/USD traded around 1.3150. Speculation about the end of the US government shutdown has boosted the USD. President Donald Trump is hopeful about reaching an agreement. Currently, GBP/USD trades around 1.3170, showing pressures from a slowing UK economy. Recent data from the ONS shows that unemployment remains steady at 4.2%, but wage growth has slowed to 5.5%, down from over 6% last quarter. This trend suggests that the Bank of England might consider cutting rates in 2026, which could weaken the pound.

US Government Funding and Impact

Looking back at past US government shutdowns, like the one in late 2018 and early 2019, we see that resolving them has generally helped the US dollar. As US lawmakers approach another funding deadline in early December 2025, any signs of a smooth bipartisan deal would likely strengthen the dollar again. Traders should keep an eye out for positive news from Washington as it could lead to GBP/USD weakness. The upcoming UK Claimant Count is expected to show another small rise, reflecting the soft labour market we’ve seen for months. For those anticipating further declines in the pound, buying put options on GBP/USD might be a sensible strategy. This approach allows traders to benefit from a drop in the exchange rate while limiting their potential risk to the premium paid. The main theme for the coming weeks is the growing gap between the UK and US economies. The Bank of England is facing weak growth, while US inflation remains high at 3.5%. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This fundamental difference in central bank policies will likely be a significant challenge for the GBP/USD pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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