Insights 
VT 
Gold prices surged past $4,130 per ounce on Wednesday, marking a fourth straight session of gains, as growing market confidence pointed to the likelihood of the Federal Reserve resuming monetary easing in December.
Fresh US labour data revealed that private companies shed around 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending 25 October, reinforcing signs of a cooling jobs market and strengthening expectations for further interest rate cuts.
The renewed dovish outlook comes as the US government moves to end its longest-ever shutdown, reducing short-term uncertainty while keeping attention firmly on the broader slowdown in employment growth and consumer activity.
Fed Policy Expectations Fuel Demand
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. The combination of weaker labour figures and ongoing fiscal instability has reignited demand for gold as a hedge against policy risk.
While a government reopening could briefly dampen safe-haven flows, expectations of looser financial conditions continue to support bullion. Analysts highlight that falling US bond yields and a softer dollar remain key pillars behind gold’s strong rally this year—its best annual performance since 1979.
Technical Overview
Gold is currently hovering around $4,133, consolidating after bouncing from an intraday low near $4,074. On the 15-minute chart, price action shows short-term sideways movement following a sharp rally that briefly tested resistance at $4,148. Moving averages (5, 10, and 30) are flattening, suggesting momentum is cooling.
The MACD indicator has turned slightly lower but remains close to the signal line, implying that recent moves are more consistent with light profit-taking rather than the start of a deeper correction.
If gold holds above $4,120, buyers could attempt another push toward $4,150–$4,160 in the short term. However, a drop below $4,100 would likely signal fading bullish momentum and invite a deeper retracement toward $4,070. Overall, sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with traders watching upcoming US CPI data for clues on whether the Fed’s easing path will accelerate.
Outlook: Cautiously Bullish
The broader trend for gold remains constructive, supported by expectations of further monetary loosening. Should upcoming data continue to reveal weakness in employment and consumer spending, prices could extend toward $4,160–$4,180 in the short term.
Conversely, if the official reopening of the US government triggers a brief rebound in the US dollar or Treasury yields, gold may enter a temporary consolidation phase between $4,080–$4,120 before resuming its upward path.
