The USD/CHF has climbed to about 0.7990 early on Thursday during the European session. The pair is still in a downward trend, staying below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and supported by a bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI). Initial support is at 0.7946, with a potential drop past 0.7909 if it breaks this level. On the other hand, resistance is at 0.8007, which may rise to 0.8065 if surpassed, with another resistance point at 0.8115.

The Role of the Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc (CHF) ranks among the top ten most traded currencies, with its value linked to Switzerland’s economy and actions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). After the removal of its peg to the Euro, the CHF saw a 20% increase because of its dependence on Eurozone stability. As a safe-haven currency, the CHF usually gains value during times of global market stress, thanks to Switzerland’s stable economic and political environment. The SNB’s decisions greatly affect the CHF’s value; higher interest rates make it more appealing, while lower rates could weaken it. Switzerland’s economy, closely tied to the Eurozone, also impacts the CHF through macroeconomic data and Eurozone policies. Changes in indicators such as growth or inflation can cause movements in the CHF. The bearish outlook from previous years, when USD/CHF traded near 0.8000, has changed. As of November 13, 2025, the pair is stabilizing around 0.9150, indicating a shift in the global economic situation. The current tension is between the Federal Reserve, which is contemplating its next steps, and the SNB, which is concerned about a slowing Eurozone.

Trading Implications and Strategies

The US Dollar’s strength is being questioned as recent data shows headline inflation has eased to 2.8% in October 2025, while wage growth stays strong. This puts the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern, with markets anticipating a possible rate cut in the second quarter of 2026. This dovish shift suggests limited upside for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc isn’t the reliable safe haven it used to be, especially when compared to the 2011-2015 peg era. With the latest Swiss manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.5, indicating contraction, the SNB is cautious about tightening its policy. The economic health of the Eurozone, its key trading partner, remains crucial for the SNB. For those trading derivatives, a strategy of selling volatility may be wise in the weeks ahead. We think the opposing pressures from both central banks will likely keep the pair within a defined range, probably between 0.9000 and 0.9250. Buying strangles or straddles might be risky, as there doesn’t appear to be a major catalyst for a breakout right now. Those who are bearish on USD/CHF might consider purchasing put options with a strike price below 0.9050, which provides a defined-risk way to bet on a dollar decline. However, since the CHF has its own vulnerabilities, we recommend using any strength toward the 0.9200 level as an opportunity to enter these positions. This situation is a significant improvement from the sub-0.8000 levels discussed during past US government shutdowns, highlighting a fundamentally stronger dollar today. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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