Softbank Group Corp has recently seen a significant change in its stock performance. The shares rose from about $37 in July to nearly $90 by early November but have now fallen to $70.60, a drop of 5.87%. This decline below the support trendline indicates a shift in the stock’s direction after several months of gains. The July trendline, which previously provided solid support, has now broken down, raising concerns about further price drops. The break below this line may signal a shift in market sentiment. The first support level to watch is at $64.36, known as the “Gap Fill First Support.” If the price falls below $64.36, we may see the next support level around $56.24, representing about a 20% drop from current levels. Such corrections are typical when uptrends fail. The trading landscape has changed, with previous support levels between $75 and $77 now acting as resistance. For a positive outcome, the stock needs to regain the broken trendline. However, the ongoing downward pressure suggests that buyers must show strong volume to take charge. A trend reversal seems unlikely in the short term without clear signs of buyer confidence. Since Softbank broke its key upward trendline on November 14, 2025, our strategy must move from bullish to bearish. The technical damage indicates that the path of least resistance is downward. Traders might consider put options to profit from a possible decline toward the first support level. Purchasing puts with expiration dates in December 2025 or January 2026 gives us time to see a move toward the $64.36 gap fill. This strategy is supported by fundamentals, as Arm Holdings, a key portfolio company, provided disappointing future guidance in its recent earnings report. This has created a significant challenge for Softbank’s valuation, likely triggering the technical breakdown. We should now regard the old trendline, currently around the $75-$77 range, as a new resistance level. If the stock attempts a rally to this area, we might consider bearish positions like bear call spreads. This strategy would yield profits if the stock remains below that previous support level in a volatile market. Looking at the larger picture, Softbank’s latest quarterly results from late October 2025 showed weak performance from the Vision Fund, failing to encourage investors to buy the dip. With the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating plans to keep interest rates high into 2026, the market conditions remain challenging for the long-term tech assets in Softbank’s portfolio, strengthening the case for further declines. Historically, Softbank has faced sharp downturns, such as during the rate hikes in 2022. This history suggests that falling to the secondary support level of $56.24 is possible if the $64.36 level does not hold. Therefore, we should prepare for a multi-week decline rather than expecting a quick recovery.

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