EUR/CAD is rising as the Euro gains strength due to the European Central Bank’s careful approach to monetary policy. The ECB is not expected to change interest rates soon, with only a 40% chance of a rate cut by September 2026. The Euro is benefitting from steady economic conditions and inflation rates close to the target. ECB officials have pointed out the importance of focusing on core inflation, indicating that current rates are suitable. On the other hand, the rise in EUR/CAD is limited by the strength of the Canadian Dollar, which is influenced by increasing oil prices. Canada, a significant crude oil exporter to the US, sees the CAD strengthen as oil prices rise. West Texas Intermediate oil is trading at around $59.60, up more than 1.5% after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil depot affected several facilities.

Forex Market Performance

A currency table shows that the Euro is doing well against the British Pound; however, its performance against other major currencies like USD, JPY, and CAD is mixed. The heat map illustrates the percentage changes in major currencies relative to one another, revealing subtle movements in the Forex market today. Akhtar Faruqui, a Forex Analyst, provides in-depth analysis and news focused on trends in the financial markets. The European Central Bank is signaling us to be careful about rate cuts, which is supporting the Euro. Inflation data from October 2025 shows a headline figure of 2.3%, reinforcing the expectation that policymakers will keep rates steady this winter. This makes long Euro positions appealing, especially against currencies whose central banks may lower rates in the future. With EUR/CAD approaching 1.6250, we are reaching levels not seen since the market volatility of 2020. This suggests that while the trend is upward, traders should be cautious of resistance and might think about strategies like buying call spreads to capture potential gains while managing risk. The strength of the pair is mainly supported by the growing gap between the steady ECB and a more neutral Bank of Canada.

Canadian Dollar Influences

The Canadian Dollar is receiving a temporary boost from oil prices, with WTI crude briefly reaching $59.60 after the drone strike in Russia. However, this strength may not last, as the larger energy market has been weak for much of 2025 due to falling global demand. This raises concerns that the CAD’s strength may not endure, likely favoring the Euro in the EUR/CAD pair in the weeks ahead. The difference between a data-focused ECB and a commodity-reliant Bank of Canada creates opportunities. The latest Canadian jobs report for October 2025 was mixed, showing a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 6.2%, adding pressure on the CAD. We see value in options that may benefit from the continued rise in EUR/CAD, as the underlying strength in Europe seems more stable than the temporary boost from oil-related geopolitical events. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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