In September, Russia’s foreign trade hit $13.595 billion, up from $7.466 billion. This growth signals a change in the country’s economic activity and trade patterns. Other market trends were also noted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged due to a recovery in AI stocks and delays in data release. Gold prices dropped below $4,100, influenced by a stronger US dollar and comments from the Federal Reserve.

The Foreign Exchange Market

The GBP/USD exchange rate fell to 1.3140 as the dollar gained strength, with UK political and financial issues putting additional pressure on the currency. In contrast, cryptocurrencies struggled, with Bitcoin trading above $97,000 but experiencing lower demand overall. VeChain made a significant upgrade to its network, moving from a Proof of Authority system to Delegated Proof of Stake. This change aims to support the network’s growth, even though the digital asset faces a 15% downside risk. This week’s market focus is on analyzing US data released after the shutdown and its potential impact on investor sentiment. It’s crucial to note that no investment advice is given, stressing the importance of personal research and assessing risk before making financial decisions. Given the Federal Reserve’s firm approach, market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased significantly. Recent inflation data, while slightly lower, remains above the Fed’s target. The Consumer Price Index for October 2025 showed an increase of 3.4%. Consequently, the chance of a rate cut has dropped to 15%, down from over 50% a month ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Impact Of Interest Rates On Market Trends

This change is pushing the US Dollar higher, which is affecting major currency pairs. The EUR/USD rate struggles to maintain the 1.1600 level, while the GBP/USD rate is sliding toward 1.3140, weighed down by weak UK retail sales and uncertainty around government financial plans. Strategies that favor a stronger dollar, like buying puts on the EUR or GBP, seem well-positioned for the upcoming weeks. Gold is suffering in this environment, falling below the important $4,100 mark as rising US Treasury yields make the non-yielding metal less appealing. The US 10-year yield has risen to 4.75% this week, and if this trend continues, gold may test the psychological support level of $4,000 per ounce. Traders should think about short positions or protective puts on gold-related assets until the Fed’s stance changes. We are also witnessing a risk-off sentiment spill into more speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies. With both institutional and retail demand fading, Bitcoin has retreated from recent highs and is around $97,000. Recent data indicates ongoing weekly outflows from digital asset investment products over the last month, suggesting that in a tighter monetary policy environment, capital is moving away from high-risk assets. The unexpected rise in Russia’s foreign trade surplus to nearly $13.6 billion is significant, likely influenced by steady energy prices during the third quarter of 2025. While this offers some fundamental support for Russian assets, the global picture is dominated by the strong US dollar. It would be risky to go against the broad market trend based on a single piece of country-specific data. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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