Seaborne Crude Exports

Russia’s seaborne crude exports may hit obstacles as India and China stop buying. Even with these global tensions, basic supply and demand factors still play a big role. The International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus by 2025, with enough oil to exceed 4 million barrels per day in 2026. Recently, US oil inventories rose more than expected, raising worries about oversupply. High production levels are also pressing down prices, which limits any recovery in WTI. WTI prices are shaped by supply and demand, global events, and the value of the US dollar. Reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration help track market supply changes. Additionally, OPEC’s production choices significantly impact WTI prices.

Current Market Situation

As of November 14, 2025, we see a clash between immediate geopolitical worries and long-term supply fundamentals. The WTI price approaching $60 is a direct response to the recent Russian depot strike and upcoming US sanctions. This period is likely to see significant price swings, opening up chances for options traders. Mark your calendar for November 21st, when new US sanctions will start. In the week ahead, expect sharp price movements depending on news about Russian oil flows or any disruptions. Implied volatility for December WTI options has spiked over 45%, reflecting this uncertainty and making it appealing to sell premium for those who think this rally won’t last. Nonetheless, we can’t overlook the strong supply pressures. This week’s EIA report revealed a large inventory increase of 5.2 million barrels, surpassing predictions and showcasing the ongoing US oil surplus. With American production close to a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day, the oversupply issue is structural. This fundamental weakness suggests that any price spikes above $60 may present selling opportunities. We see value in strategies betting on price declines after the sanction-related noise fades, like purchasing longer-dated put options for January or February 2026 contracts. The IEA’s prediction of a 2.4 million barrel-per-day surplus for 2025 supports the likelihood of lower prices. Moreover, since April, OPEC+ has been gradually increasing output, adding to the global surplus. Unlike the production cuts we saw in 2023, the group is now more focused on maintaining market share, and we don’t expect policy changes in their next meeting. The reduction in Russian crude purchases by both China and India may make these new sanctions more significant, but the global market is still fundamentally oversupplied. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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