West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is stabilizing above $60 per barrel. This stability comes after Russia resumed operations at its Novorossiysk hub, easing supply concerns. The WTI price has risen about 0.50% after hitting a low of around $59.22 during the day. While the geopolitical risk has lessened, caution is still needed due to ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea. Traders are closely watching future US economic data that has been delayed due to the government shutdown. As one of the largest consumers of oil, the US can significantly impact crude prices based on its economic growth and fuel demand. Major energy agencies predict that global oil supply will outpace demand until 2026. WTI faces resistance in the $61-$61.50 range, while crucial support lies at $59.22 and $58.12. If WTI closes above the resistance level, it could decrease bearish pressure, but challenges remain close to $62.89. WTI oil is a high-quality, light, and sweet crude oil from the US and serves as a market benchmark. Key factors that drive its price include supply and demand, political instability, and the strength of the US Dollar. Weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA greatly impact WTI prices, with lower inventories often leading to higher prices. Additionally, OPEC’s production decisions can tighten or ease market supply. Currently, WTI oil is just above $60, with the market balancing short-term supply relief against a broader narrative of oversupply. The recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA, released on November 12, 2025, highlights this caution, predicting a global supply surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day by early 2026. This trend suggests that any price increases may be short-lived. Derivatives traders should keep an eye on the $61.00-$61.50 range for potential bearish positions. The disappointing US jobs report for October, delayed until last Friday, revealed only 95,000 new jobs, indicating a slowing economy and likely lower fuel demand. A similar pattern emerged in late 2023 when fears of a recession capped oil price increases despite production cuts. If WTI breaks below the immediate support at $59.22, traders should consider adding to short positions or buying put options. The downside targets in the coming weeks include last week’s low of $58.12 and the October low around $57.31. With the ongoing oversupply trend, these levels are becoming more likely if economic data continues to show weakness. For a bullish trend to emerge, WTI would need to maintain a close above the $61.50 resistance level, which has held firm since late October. Historically, geopolitical risk premiums, like those from the Black Sea strikes, tend to fade quickly unless there is a significant, lasting disruption. Thus, buying during these rallies can be risky without a fundamental change in supply and demand. This week’s inventory reports from the API and EIA will be crucial to watch. Last week’s EIA report, released on November 13th, showed a surprise increase in inventory of 2.5 million barrels. Another build in inventory could lead to a break of current support. A significant increase would confirm falling demand and reinforce a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.

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