Business confidence in Portugal improved in November, rising to 3 from 2.9. This shift indicates changing economic views in the country. In the financial market, there were notable price changes and forecasts. The EUR/USD pair had fluctuations, while GBP/USD pulled back after a growth period. At the same time, gold prices stayed steady above $4,150, as the market speculated about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut.

Crypto Market Activity

Cardano (ADA) saw a recovery, trading around $0.43, supported by significant whale orders and positive funding rates. During the US Thanksgiving period, several indices, including the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow, gained ground, despite worries about the sustainability of these gains. FXStreet offers various analyses and forecasts for different financial instruments, highlighting the risks involved. The site recommends thorough research before making any financial decisions and states that forward-looking statements carry uncertainties. This information should not be taken as specific investment advice. With the market anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut, we expect continued weakness in the US Dollar. This week, Fed funds futures show an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, even though core US inflation remains at a stubborn 3.5%. This expectation is influencing all asset classes as we approach the end of the year. Gold prices above $4,150 reflect these rate cut expectations and a movement toward safer investments. This trend has been strengthening since ongoing inflation in 2023-2024. While gold remains robust, its high price suggests the need for defined-risk strategies. Buying call options may be wise to capture potential gains while limiting losses if the Fed takes a more hawkish approach.

Market Volatility Concerns

The recent equity rally, termed “Thanksgiving Levitation,” seems fragile due to low holiday trading volumes. The VIX is near 13, a level that often precedes volatility spikes, indicating market complacency. It would be wise to purchase protective puts on the S&P 500 as a safeguard against a sharp market reversal when full trading volume returns next week. In Europe, the slight rise in Portugal’s business confidence contributes to an overall picture of moderate stability, with Eurozone inflation at a manageable 2.8%. This situation allows the European Central Bank to keep rates steady, creating a policy divergence that may benefit the Euro over the dollar. The current consolidation below 1.1600 in EUR/USD may present a buying opportunity. The British Pound’s decline below 1.3250 against the dollar seems like a healthy correction after its strong performance following the Autumn Budget. This pause offers a chance to re-enter long positions, anticipating further gains if the dollar continues to weaken. Watch for support around the 1.3200 level in the coming days. For higher-risk portfolios, Cardano’s on-chain data is promising, showing strong whale accumulation and positive funding rates. Its movement toward $0.50 has momentum, backed by solid fundamentals within its ecosystem. Trading this crypto asset using derivatives might offer an appealing risk-reward profile, independent of broader economic trends. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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