The NASDAQ 100 index is expected to reach about 26,700. We noticed a gap since the previous target was missed by 2%. To confidently confirm a correction, the index needs to close below 24,000 for the week, which would indicate a 75% chance of a downward trend. Currently, the index is at 25,575 after closing the previous week at 24,239. It dropped to 23,854 at its lowest point. The warning levels to watch for the index are 25,443, 25,158, 24,542, 24,214, and 23,854. If it closes below these levels, the likelihood that the uptrend that started on November 21 is over increases by 20%.

Current Market Structure

Recent analysis shows a strong upward move since the November 21 low. When viewed on a 65-minute chart, we see five upward waves followed by three corrective waves. We expect the orange W-3 to peak around 26,635, leading to W-4 and W-5, which could take us close to 26,700. Technical indicators are showing a decrease in downward strength, suggesting we may be entering a corrective phase that’s likely to move upwards. It’s important to have strategic stop-loss levels that can adjust as the trend continues. According to the current market trends, the NASDAQ 100 seems to be in its last push to reach the 26,700 level. The index tested a key support level of 23,854 on November 21, 2025, and has been rising since. This trend supports the idea that the overall direction is bullish in the coming weeks.

Economic Data Supports Bullish Outlook

The latest economic data strengthens this positive view. The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a modest year-over-year increase of just 2.1%. This has eased concerns about further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. A stable interest rate environment with easing inflation is typically good news for tech stocks on the NASDAQ 100. For traders, this suggests adopting a bullish strategy, such as purchasing call options or call debit spreads. With the index near 25,575, options with strike prices between 26,000 and 26,500 that expire in late December 2025 or January 2026 could benefit from the anticipated final surge. This lets traders take advantage of potential gains while managing risk. We may see a small pullback to around 25,300, which could present a low-risk opportunity for traders still looking to enter the market. Similar brief dips before a final peak are common in bull markets, like we saw earlier in 2023. Waiting for a better entry price could be beneficial before the index aims for its target. Risk management is essential, especially since we consider this the final wave. Traders should pay attention to the warning levels, like 25,443 and 25,158, to set stop-losses or start taking profits. A daily close below these levels would raise the likelihood that the uptrend has ended, so reducing long positions would be wise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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