Statistics Canada will soon release its Labour Force Survey. Analysts expect the Unemployment Rate to rise to 7% in November. The Employment Change is expected to stay the same after a positive employment boost in October. Markets are getting ready for these figures. This report comes just before the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision. With today’s report likely showing a rise to 7% unemployment, we see this as a key moment for the Bank of Canada. The data arrives before the BoC’s final rate decision of the year on December 10th and may confirm the economic slowdown we’ve observed. Currently, the market sees a nearly 40% chance of a rate cut, a big rise from 15% just a month earlier. If the numbers are weaker than expected, such as a 7.2% unemployment rate or job losses, it will strengthen the case for a rate cut next week. Traders might want to consider buying call options on CORRA futures to take advantage of expectations for falling interest rates. A similar trend occurred in the third quarter of 2025 when weak inflation data led to a bond rally. On the other hand, if there’s unexpected strength, like the surprise gain of 17,500 jobs in October 2025, it could challenge the current forecast. This may cause a sudden shift, lowering prices on short-term interest rate futures as the chance of a rate cut decreases. A strategic move would be to buy put options on these futures, betting that the BoC will keep rates steady. This situation also impacts the Canadian dollar, which has had difficulty staying above $0.72 USD. A weak jobs report would likely push the USD/CAD exchange rate toward the 1.4000 resistance level, a height we haven’t seen since 2024. Buying near-term USD/CAD call options is a direct way to prepare for a possible decline of the loonie. Given the uncertainty around this event, we expect increased volatility regardless of the outcome. Implied volatility for one-month CAD options has already reached a three-month high of 8.5%. Traders who prefer not to bet on a specific direction could use straddles on currency ETFs to profit from any significant market movement. Looking ahead, this jobs report will set the stage for the January 2026 meeting. A confirmed downturn in the job market would lead us to roll our dovish bets forward. We would focus on options with February 2026 expiries to align with the changing policy trends.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now