Nasdaq futures hit a roadblock at 25,855, which has become a solid resistance level. During Monday’s U.S. session, attempts to break through this level were unsuccessful, confirming its role as a ceiling. The market then reversed and fell below 25,805, resulting in a 214-point drop to the lower edge of a 6-day price channel and close to the Monthly Point of Control (POC) at around 25,591. Currently, the Index is above the important pivot level of 25,677, which is crucial for short-term trend analysis.

Intraday Trend

The intraday trend is still technically sound, with prices holding above the lower boundary of the rising channel. As of early Tuesday, the Index is trading around 25,719, focusing on a key area that will help decide future movements. Important structural zones will guide the market’s next steps. The middle structure (25,560–25,677) will be critical for market direction, while the upper structure (25,805–25,936) challenges bullish momentum. If the middle structure fails, the lower zone (25,428–25,297) will become the next support level. The daily chart reflects this trend, showing resistance at 25,855. A drop below 25,560–25,677 could significantly change the trend. The market’s path is clear: holding or breaking these key levels will determine the next significant move.

Critical Decision Point

Nasdaq futures signal a crucial moment after failing to break the 25,855 barrier twice. This repeated resistance has formed a strong upper limit, and prices are now consolidating just above the important pivot at 25,677. The Volatility Index (VIX) is hovering around 16, showing market calmness but also potential complacency before the next significant movement. The market seems to be coiling within a narrow range as traders wait for final inflation data coming out next week, just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year. The middle structure between 25,560 and 25,677 is where this tension is building. Until something prompts a breakout, prices will likely stay within this range. For a bullish scenario to emerge, we need a clear break and hold above 25,805. Such a move would likely be supported by a dovish Fed outlook and could spark a “Santa Claus rally,” where the Nasdaq 100 has often gained in December. This would lead to targets near 26,000. On the flip side, if we can’t maintain the 25,560 support level, it would signal that the recent upward momentum has faded. The developing bearish divergence on the daily RSI suggests weakening buying power, and a drop below this pivot could quickly lead to a downturn to the 25,428–25,297 support zone as traders cash in profits. This could be intensified if upcoming jobs data shows any surprises. From an options perspective, this clearly defined range makes strategies like straddles or strangles around the 25,677 pivot particularly effective for the expected volatility. For futures traders, these structural levels offer clear lines for managing risk in short-term plays. The current structure provides well-defined entry and exit points. This price behavior reminds us of the consolidation from late 2023, which preceded a breakout to new highs after the Fed’s dovish turn. The present structure suggests we are in a similar holding phase, waiting for a fundamental trigger to define the trend into early 2026. How the market resolves the situation around the 25,677 pivot in the upcoming sessions will be crucial. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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