Consumer spending in the Netherlands stayed steady at 0.8% in October 2025, showing a stable economic trend during that time. The EUR/USD pair remained around 1.1650 as traders anticipated a US interest rate decision. They were also looking forward to US employment data, which included the ADP Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings reports. GBP/USD moved back to 1.3350 amid changing market conditions. This fluctuation was driven by a weaker US Dollar and hopeful signs around US employment data. Gold prices recovered, climbing back above $4,200 in the European session after a short dip. This rise occurred just before important US economic reports that are expected to impact market trends. Chainlink held steady at about $13.70, supported by strong activity in its ecosystem. Declining exchange reserves and new integrations also hint at possible positive market trends. The global economic outlook for 2026 faces several challenges, such as financial system risks and growing public debt. Despite resilience in recent years, risks to recovery are increasing, affecting medium-term macroeconomic and credit conditions. We are closely watching the upcoming US jobs data, which is the last major information before the Federal Reserve’s policy decision tomorrow. Recent JOLTS data showed that job openings dropped to 8.7 million, the lowest in two years, supporting expectations for a cooling labor market. A weak report today would likely lead to a rate cut, while a surprisingly strong one could cause significant market fluctuations. The uncertainty before the Fed’s decision has increased the cost of options. The VIX, which measures market fear, has gone up by 15% over the past month to about 15.5, as traders seek protection against unexpected moves. This implies that strategies that aim to benefit from large price swings, regardless of direction, could be helpful. With the market predicting over a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, the US Dollar is likely to stay weak. This weakness is bolstering pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, keeping them near recent highs of 1.1650 and 1.3350, respectively. We expect this trend to continue unless the Fed surprises us with a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, there is a clear difference in policy with Japan, where officials are signaling plans to raise interest rates. This contrast between an easing Federal Reserve and a tightening Bank of Japan has driven USD/JPY down from its highs of around 156.40. This pair offers a direct way to trade the differing paths of the two central banks. The expectation of lower US interest rates is a key factor driving gold prices, which have returned to the $4,200 level. This strength in gold makes sense, as real yields have fallen, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 50 basis points last month to 3.8%. As long as the market anticipates easier monetary policy, we expect strong support for precious metals.

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