Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will soon publish the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, expecting to see 7.2 million job openings in October. Recent years have shown that both global and European economies are holding up well, though a slight slowdown is anticipated in 2025, raising some concerns about the economy in the medium term. Chainlink (LINK) started the week at about $13.70, staying steady above an important support level. The network is doing well due to decreasing exchange reserves and several new partnerships. The market seems to be overlooking assurances from Beijing, highlighting a lack of trust in China’s ability to meet its economic goals. The muted response of the Australian dollar, which often reflects China’s economy, indicates that traders are skeptical of official statements. Data from the third quarter of 2025 revealed that China’s manufacturing PMI is struggling to stay above the 50-point threshold, which signals growth, making traders cautious about overly optimistic predictions. Today, the strength of the Australian dollar against the Japanese Yen and US dollar appears disconnected from news about China. Instead, it likely reflects hopes for stable commodity prices and differences in interest rates. Notably, iron ore prices have remained above $120 per tonne for most of the fourth quarter of 2025, providing strong support for the AUD despite worries about demand from China.

Market Strategy and Volatility

This week, the upcoming US JOLTS job openings data is the key event for the market. The expected 7.2 million job openings for October would continue the trend of cooling down from the 8.5 million in early 2025, strengthening the argument for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering rates in the first half of 2026. This possibility of a weaker dollar presents a chance for those trading currency pairs against it. As we navigate the gap between short-term strength and a negative medium-term outlook, we should brace for more volatility. While the global slowdown in 2025 has been mild, increasing credit risks make it important to use options to protect long positions. Buying puts on major indices or using volatility tools like VIX futures could provide an affordable way to guard against an unexpected downturn as the new year approaches. In our immediate strategy, we should focus on trades that reflect a weakening US labor market instead of a strong China. This might involve buying call options on the AUD/USD to benefit from a possible dovish shift from the Fed, while staying cautious about the long-term potential of the pair due to risks associated with China. The stability of assets like Chainlink indicates that investors are seeking growth in alternative ecosystems, a trend we should keep in mind. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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