Market Influences

The price of WTI Oil is mainly driven by supply and demand. This is influenced by global economic conditions, political events, and OPEC’s production decisions. Additionally, the value of the US Dollar affects oil prices; when the Dollar weakens, oil becomes cheaper to buy. Weekly reports on oil inventory from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Agency show changes in supply and demand, which can impact WTI Oil prices. OPEC, made up of 12 oil-producing countries, affects prices through their production quotas. OPEC+ includes Russia and is a key player as well. Currently, WTI crude is holding steady at just under $58 a barrel, showing a small increase and some positive market sentiment. This small gain indicates that traders are waiting for a solid signal before making big moves. Traders should watch for signs of a breakout, especially in next week’s EIA and API inventory reports for guidance. Recent data suggests prices might rise in the coming weeks. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA, released on December 5th, 2025, has raised global demand forecasts by 300,000 barrels per day. This is due to forecasts of a colder-than-average winter in North America and Europe. This outlook encourages considering call options or long futures positions.

OPEC Stance

On the supply side, OPEC+ continues to show discipline. In their last meeting on November 30th, 2025, they decided to maintain current production quotas through the first quarter of 2026, ignoring calls to increase output. This strong position suggests a price floor and limits risks for traders with long positions. It’s important to remember the high volatility of 2022 when prices soared over $100 per barrel due to geopolitical conflicts. The current price around $58 seems modest in comparison, suggesting there is potential for upward movement if global demand continues to improve. This historical perspective makes a bullish play more likely. The US Dollar’s value also benefits oil prices. Following the Federal Reserve’s statement in November 2025, which indicated a pause on interest rate hikes, the Dollar Index has fallen to 101.5. A weaker Dollar makes crude oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which usually increases demand. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now