Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to rise by 40,000 in November, following a rise of 119,000 in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release delayed data for October and November on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The US Dollar is expected to see increased volatility. The October data is incomplete due to a government shutdown, only showing indicators from establishment surveys. Economists expect the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% and for Average Hourly Earnings, which increased by 3.8% in September, to be reported as well.

Job Market Projections

TD Securities anticipates a rebound of 70,000 new jobs in November after a decline of 60,000 in October. They predict the Unemployment Rate will rise slightly to 4.5% and Average Hourly Earnings will increase by 0.3% month-over-month after a quiet October. The US Dollar has been weak, particularly against the New Zealand Dollar, as markets expect future interest rate cuts. Recent data showed that unemployment benefit claims rose by 44,000, and the ISM Services PMI indicated slight improvement. The forthcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report could greatly impact the US Dollar, especially against the euro, potentially influencing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for the upcoming year. Looking back, poor jobs data from late 2025 indicated the labor market was cooling, leading the Federal Reserve to cut rates to the 3.5%-3.75% range. These events shaped the current market environment.

Market Strategies

The trend of a weakening labor market has persisted this year. The November 2025 jobs report indicated only 85,000 new jobs were added, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.2%. This marks an increase from the 3.7% rate at the end of 2023, showing a gradual decline. However, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading shows inflation remains stubborn at 3.0%, which is above the Fed’s target. This puts the central bank in a tough spot; a slowing job market calls for looser policies while inflation holds them back. The Fed kept rates steady in their early December meeting, indicating they aren’t ready for more cuts yet. Given this uncertainty, traders should consider strategies that can take advantage of volatility in the coming weeks. Options like straddles or strangles on the EUR/USD pair could be effective before the next inflation and employment data releases. These positions could profit from significant price movements in either direction, which is likely as the market reacts to mixed economic signals. For those focused on interest rates, the gap between market expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 and the Fed’s more cautious stance presents an opportunity. Trading derivatives based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) or Fed Funds futures can help one position for a Fed that may hold rates longer than expected. Selling call options on futures contracts might be one way to express this view. This environment also suggests a cautious approach to equity markets. With slower economic growth, using options on major indices like the S&P 500 for protection is wise. Buying puts or implementing collar strategies can help hedge against downside risk in portfolios while waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now