The 4-week average of US ADP employment change rose to 16.25K as of November 29, up from 4.75K. This growth occurs against a backdrop of different economic signals and market reactions. In December, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8, and Services PMI dropped to 52.9. Retail sales in the US held steady at $732.6 billion in October, following a slight bump in September.

Gold Prices And Currency Movement

Gold prices went up, reacting to mixed US jobs data, with prices recovering above $4,300. The EUR/USD pair approached 1.1800 as the US Dollar weakened, following a decline in Nonfarm Payrolls by 105,000 in October, before increasing by 64,000 in November. The British Pound stayed stable above 1.3400 due to positive PMI data, while the US Dollar faced challenges with mixed employment results. Binance Coin (BNB) continued to fall, trading around $855, even as retail activity increased, as shown by on-chain data. Investors should do thorough research before making any decisions due to inherent risks. The views shared here are those of the author and not intended as financial advice. Current US data shows a disconnect, suggesting opportunities. The rise in the ADP average job growth to 16.25K indicates a strong labor market, but this contradicts the slowing PMI figures in both manufacturing and services. This mixed situation makes it hard to predict economic direction, suggesting attention should be on relative value and volatility.

US Dollar Struggles

This confusion is weighing on the US Dollar, as traders speculate about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. After aggressive rate hikes in 2023 and 2024, the market is hinting at possible earlier rate cuts due to weaker economic activity. This is why the Dollar is struggling for demand, despite positive employment news. For equity index traders, this uncertainty signals a need to focus on volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently under its historical average of around 19, a level that seems too low given the conflicting economic signals. Buying VIX call options or using straddles on major indexes may be a smart move to prepare for potential price swings in early 2026. A weaker dollar is a boost for gold, but the situation for platinum is even more interesting. We are seeing a structural deficit in the platinum market, a trend that has been developing since 2023 as industrial demand consistently outpaces mine supply. With prices reaching their highest level since 2011, taking long positions through futures or options looks appealing as this supply imbalance is likely to persist. In the currency markets, this scenario favors selling the US Dollar against currencies with more hawkish central banks. The European Central Bank is grappling with stubborn core inflation, which has stayed above its 2% target for most of 2025. This policy gap makes long EUR/USD positions appealing, potentially reaching the 1.1800 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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