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    Redbook Index year-on-year for the United States increased to 7.2%, up from 6.2%

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 23, 2025
    The United States Redbook Index showed a year-over-year increase of 7.2% on December 19, rising from the previous 6.2%. The Redbook Index measures retail sales growth across the country, indicating trends in consumer spending.

    Indicating Rising Retail Activity

    This increase signals greater retail activity during the period. Retailers can use this information to evaluate sales performance and manage inventory effectively. The recent rise in the Redbook Index to 7.2% points to stronger holiday shopping than previously expected. This suggests positive consumer health, which may lead to higher-than-anticipated fourth-quarter earnings for major retailers. We should consider short-term call options on retail sector ETFs, like the XRT, to benefit from this potential growth as we approach January. However, this strong consumer spending could contribute to inflation, a concern that may persist into 2025. The latest Consumer Price Index report for November 2025 indicated inflation at a stubborn 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s target. This new spending data could lead the Fed to delay planned interest rate cuts for 2026, making options on interest rate futures even more appealing to manage the expected volatility.

    Consumer Confidence Extends Beyond Retail Goods

    High consumer confidence often extends beyond retail goods. We should also look at bullish positions in the consumer discretionary sector, which includes travel and dining stocks. Historically, strong holiday sales data, like late 2023, has preceded broader market rallies, suggesting that call options on the XLY may also be profitable. With these mixed signals, market uncertainty could increase in the coming weeks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently low at 14, making it cost-effective to buy protection against a potential market downturn. We can use VIX call options as a hedge in case the market views this strong consumer data negatively for future interest rate policy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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