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    The Redbook Index in the United States increased to 7.6% year-on-year, rising from 7.2%

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 30, 2025
    The United States Redbook Index, which tracks sales growth year-over-year, reached 7.6% on December 26. This is an improvement from the earlier figure of 7.2%.

    Redbook Index Growth

    The Redbook Index for the last week of December 2025 shows a rise to 7.6%. This means consumer spending was stronger than expected during the busy holiday shopping period. These numbers hint at a healthy economic outlook as we move into the new year. Strong consumer spending could lead to positive sentiment for stocks in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors. Traders might want to look into short-term call options on retail-focused ETFs, as this kind of data often predicts solid sales reports and positive surprises in earnings. This trend is backed by the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for December 2025, which recorded a six-month high of 71.2, reflecting improved consumer confidence. However, high spending levels might raise concerns about inflation and could delay any expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates that the market sees only a 45% chance of a rate cut by June 2026, a drop from 60% last month. This could lead to increased pressure on Treasury yields, making put options on bond futures a potentially interesting strategy for hedging or speculation.

    Comparison to Early 2023

    We can compare this situation to early 2023 when strong consumer data postponed a shift in Fed policy. Back then, while the stock market initially reacted positively, concerns about interest rates became more important over time. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data for December 2025 to confirm any inflation trends. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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