Australia’s trade balance fell to 2,936 million AUD in November, down from 4,385 million AUD in October. This change shows a decline in trade performance month over month.

Currency and Commodity Trends

Recent trends in the currency and commodities markets have been notable. The EUR/USD remained below 1.1700, while the NZD/USD weakened to about 0.5750 as the market awaited the US jobs report. In commodities, silver prices fluctuated around $78.00. WTI prices bounced back to above $56.00 after a reported drop in inventory, according to EIA. Exchange rates also changed, with the Japanese Yen weakening against the USD. At the same time, USD/CAD rose above 1.3850 due to concerns about Canadian oil demand. The stability of GBP/USD has been influenced by several factors. Gold prices dropped to around $4,450 as demand for safe-haven assets decreased. This information is for informational purposes only and cautions about risks and uncertainties in market investments. FXStreet is not responsible for any potential errors or omissions in this information.

Impact of Australia’s Trade Surplus

The significant drop in Australia’s trade surplus is concerning. The decline to A$2.9 billion in November 2025 indicates weakening export demand, which is a bearish sign for the Australian dollar. We should prepare for further declines in the upcoming weeks. This trend is connected to a slowdown in demand from China. The Chinese manufacturing PMI for December 2025 fell to 49.8, showing a slight contraction and reducing demand for our key commodity exports. Iron ore prices reflect this change, dropping from over $130 per tonne in mid-2025 to around $115 now. The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely take this data seriously and refrain from a hawkish stance. With inflation easing from the highs of 2025, this trade weakness provides them with a clear reason to hold steady or possibly hint at future easing. This growing interest rate disadvantage against the US dollar supports our bearish outlook on the AUD. The AUD/USD pair clearly reflects this perspective. The US economy remains strong, with the last Non-Farm Payrolls report for 2025 showing an addition of 250,000 jobs. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a steady course. We should consider buying AUD/USD put options to prepare for a downward move, especially with US inflation figures coming out next week. A bear put spread could be another effective strategy to capitalize on a gradual decline in the currency pair. This approach allows us to manage our risk while targeting key support levels set in late 2025, offering a cautious way to trade this fundamental shift without excessive exposure to sudden volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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