Gold remains stable around $4,455, having dropped earlier to $4,407. This stability comes as US Treasury yields rise and the US Dollar strengthens. Positive US economic reports suggest an improving labor market ahead of the December Nonfarm Payrolls data. The US Dollar has bounced back as job data shows companies laid off fewer workers than expected. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecasts, and the trade deficit narrowed, supporting the Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 0.20% to 98.92, crossing its 200-day Simple Moving Average at 98.87.

Fed Survey Insights

A survey from the New York Fed indicates that inflation expectations and job perceptions are worsening in December. Data from Prime Market Terminal shows markets expect a 56-basis point Fed rate cut by 2026. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report anticipates a gain of 60,000 jobs, with the Unemployment Rate dropping to 4.5%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 were slightly higher at 208K. In October, the trade deficit significantly narrowed to $29.4 billion. The New York Fed’s survey highlighted rising short-term inflation expectations and decreasing confidence in job finding. Gold prices are influenced by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note yield increasing to 4.173%. While gold is trending upward, it is facing crucial support, and a drop below $4,400 could signal weakness. Currently, on January 9, 2026, gold is delicately poised. The price is close to $4,455, but a stronger US Dollar and rising bond yields could pressure further increases. This raises the risk for long futures positions, as momentum seems to be slowing.

Critical Market Events

The upcoming December 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report is now the key focus. There are mixed signals, with jobless claims suggesting a strong labor market while the predicted job additions are only 60,000. This uncertainty could lead to volatility, and options traders might explore strategies to benefit from significant price movements either way. Reflecting on late 2023, we saw strong economic data push back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. If the upcoming payrolls figure is notably strong, it might postpone the anticipated 56 basis points of cuts this year, potentially driving gold below the critical $4,400 support level. This historical context should inform our short-term market expectations. The support for gold’s current high price cannot be overlooked, thanks to significant central bank purchases over the past few years. World Gold Council data shows central banks were buying hundreds of tonnes annually through 2023 and 2024, a trend expected to continue. This suggests that any major price dip could present a buying opportunity for these large players. For those wanting to safeguard gains or speculate on a downturn, purchasing put options with a strike price under $4,400 may be wise. This approach allows for potential profits from a negative jobs report while clearly limiting risk. Key technical support to monitor is Wednesday’s low of $4,423. On the other hand, if the jobs report is weaker than expected, it could reinforce the market’s call for rate cuts. This scenario might push gold above the $4,500 resistance level and closer to the all-time high of $4,549. Traders betting on this outcome could utilize call options to capture potential gains with minimal capital risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now