The US API reported a rise in weekly crude oil stocks by 5.27 million barrels as of January 9. This number is much higher than the expected drop of 2 million, indicating a shift in market dynamics or changes in inventory demand.

Financial Market Movements

In the financial markets, the GBP/USD pair dipped below 1.3450 due to stronger demand for the US Dollar and upcoming US economic data. On the other hand, Gold prices climbed above $4,600 because of expectations for interest rate cuts in the US, given the latest inflation numbers. Ethereum saw renewed interest, with over 100,000 ETH moving out in weekly net flows. Ripple (XRP) remains steady above $2.00, although on-chain and derivatives activity has decreased. The Federal Reserve is under increased scrutiny with grand jury subpoenas, reflecting ongoing pressures. These events in the financial sector mirror wider economic conditions and upcoming data that could affect market trends. It’s important to note that investing in open markets comes with risks, so thorough personal research is recommended before making decisions. FXStreet provides information for reference but does not offer direct investment advice. Looking back to January 2025, we noted a notable crude inventory build of over 5 million barrels, which was a bearish sign for oil prices. This week, however, the API report for January 13, 2026, shows a decline of 3.1 million barrels, indicating stronger demand. This change suggests that holding long positions in WTI futures or purchasing call options may be a better strategy now than a year ago.

Market Expectations and Strategies

In early 2025, the market anticipated substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, driving speculation across various assets. However, the Fed remained cautious throughout 2025, and recent December CPI data showing inflation at 3.5% proves that significant cuts have not happened. This situation continues to support the US Dollar, making strategies such as buying puts on the EUR/USD pair useful as a hedge against ongoing dollar strength. A year ago, gold prices surged above $4,600 because of similar expectations for rate cuts. Today, with interest rates steady and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.1%, gold battles to stay above $2,450. The environment for non-yielding assets is more challenging, so considering protective puts on gold ETFs or bearish futures spreads could be wise in the coming weeks. We also monitored China’s trade balance last year for its effect on commodity currencies. The recent data for December 2025 shows China’s exports grew by an unexpected 4.2%, surpassing forecasts and hinting at a potential rebound in global demand. This strengthens the outlook for currencies like the Australian dollar, making long positions in AUD/USD futures or call options more appealing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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