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    Retail sales in Brazil surpass expectations with a 1% increase, compared to a 0.3% forecast.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jan 15, 2026
    Brazil’s retail sales increased by 1% in November, which is better than the expected growth of 0.3%. This rise suggests that consumers are spending actively, showing strong demand in the retail sector.

    November Retail Growth

    In November 2025, Brazil’s retail sales outperformed expectations with a 1% month-over-month increase. This indicates strong consumer demand as we approach the holiday season and year-end. This positive trend sets a strong foundation for economic activity as we enter 2026. The unexpectedly strong data from late 2025 contributes to the ongoing discussion about the Selic interest rate. With December’s IPCA inflation data showing a slight rise to 4.7%, the central bank may hesitate to lower rates in the upcoming meeting. Traders should consider strategies that benefit from stable interest rates in the near term.

    Impact on Interest Rates and Currency

    The strong consumer activity supports a robust Brazilian Real. Given this situation, there is growing interest in options strategies that bet on the USD/BRL exchange rate dropping below its recent support level of 4.90. Selling out-of-the-money USD calls or purchasing BRL calls could position traders for this potential strength. For equity derivatives, this trend points to a positive outlook for sectors focused on consumer spending. We are exploring call options on key retailers and banks that will benefit from increased spending and stable interest rates. This underlying economic strength may help the Ibovespa index futures approach the 130,000 point resistance level seen in late 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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