The Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) are often seen as ‘risky’ currencies because they are linked to commodities. These currencies usually strengthen when the global economy is doing well. However, current geopolitical issues may change this trend. Australia benefits from gold exports and is producing more rare earth minerals. Both countries have strong food exports in 2025, which should be less affected by geopolitical events.

Global Growth Outlook

Global economic growth significantly affects both currencies. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may not raise interest rates soon. The RBA will have its next meeting on February 3, while the RBNZ will meet on February 18. A more cautious approach could impact both the AUD and NZD. We might see dips in AUD/USD and NZD/USD in the coming weeks. If AUD/USD falls to 0.66 and NZD/USD drops to 0.57, these could be good buying opportunities. An upward trend for both currency pairs is expected as we move toward the middle of the year. These insights come from the FXStreet Insights Team, who gather input from market experts and analyze information from various sources. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are linked to global economic growth and commodity prices, making them historically risky. Their performance often mirrors market risk appetite. However, new geopolitical factors are putting this relationship to the test.

Central Bank Meetings

The upcoming central bank meetings are key events to watch in the near future. We anticipate that both the RBA on February 3 and the RBNZ on February 18 will temper expectations for interest rate hikes. Recent inflation data from late 2025 shows a cooling trend, giving these banks a reason to be patient. Given this situation, we predict that both AUD/USD and NZD/USD could dip in the short term. Traders might consider buying put options expiring in late February or March to take advantage of a possible dovish surprise from the central banks. Selling short-term call spreads could also be a good strategy to earn premiums before the expected decline. However, any significant drops should be seen as temporary. We view dips to AUD/USD 0.66 and NZD/USD 0.57 as attractive entry points for long-term investments. Buying call options for the middle of the year at these lower levels might be a smart way to prepare for recovery. Strong commodity exports provide a solid foundation for both currencies. Food exports were crucial for Australia and New Zealand in 2025, and Australia’s increasing role as a supplier of rare earths adds long-term support. While iron ore prices have weakened about 5% since their December 2025 highs, this short-term pressure does not change the overall positive outlook for both currencies as we approach summer. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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