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    Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister thinks the SNB might ignore EUR/CHF levels below 0.92

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jan 27, 2026
    Commerzbank’s report examines the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) stance on the EUR/CHF currency pair. The SNB is likely okay with rates below 0.92 due to current market conditions and the Swiss Franc’s stability. They probably won’t intervene unless there’s a sudden and strong rise in the currency. The report suggests that there is no urgent need for the SNB to step in. However, if the EUR/CHF rate goes down to 0.91 or lower, discussions about intervention may heat up. For now, officials may prefer to let the market fix itself.

    Swiss National Bank Policy

    The Swiss National Bank seems to be allowing the EUR/CHF to fluctuate, likely accepting levels below 0.92 for the time being. This makes sense given that Swiss inflation remained steady at 1.5% at the end of 2025, giving them little reason to act. The market appears calm, with one-month implied volatility for the pair close to historic lows around 4.2%. This suggests that selling short-term volatility could be a good strategy as long as the pair stays above 0.91. However, if EUR/CHF gets close to that 0.91 mark, implied volatility is likely to spike due to fears of intervention. Traders might think about buying inexpensive, out-of-the-money put options with strikes below 0.91 to prepare for a sudden drop and ensuing volatility. We recall the price movements in the third quarter of 2025 when the pair tested 0.93 and the SNB did not react. This inaction suggests that the central bank’s tolerance is lower than many had expected. This history supports the idea that only a fast and chaotic change would prompt a response from the SNB.

    Market Conditions and Risks

    Recent data showing that Eurozone industrial production is slowing more than expected indicates that the outlook for EUR/CHF may be downwards in the near future. In this environment, holding long positions in the pair is risky without downside protection. Thus, buying puts or creating put spreads to safeguard against a drop to 0.91 is a wise choice for the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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