Mexico’s trade balance for December was a surplus of $2.43 billion, exceeding the expected $1.64 billion. This means Mexico exported more than it imported during this time. This positive trade balance indicates strong trade performance, which can help boost economic growth. Factors like global demand for Mexican products and favorable exchange rates likely played a role in the rise in export figures.

Economic Recovery and Stability

As the economy rebounds from the pandemic, trade surpluses could protect Mexico from external economic shocks, paving the way for a stable economic outlook until 2026. Market analysts are closely watching future trade developments and their impacts on Mexico’s economy, especially amid global trade tensions and shifting economic policies. FXStreet will provide further updates and analyses on this issue. As of January 27, 2026, the unexpectedly strong trade surplus from December 2025 is a positive signal for the Mexican Peso (MXN). The $2.43 billion surplus points to economic strength that the market may not yet fully recognize. This momentum encourages a re-assessment of any short positions on the peso. This report reflects the overall trend seen throughout 2025, where the “nearshoring” effect significantly boosted Mexican manufacturing and exports. Tracking foreign direct investment shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, figures exceeded $30 billion, mainly directed toward expanding industrial capacity. This ongoing success builds on a solid base, including a nearly $12 billion trade surplus in 2023.

Investment and Market Strategies

In the upcoming weeks, it might be wise to buy put options on the USD/MXN currency pair to benefit from a strengthening peso. Current strength may push the exchange rate below the critical 16.80 support level, potentially challenging the 16.50 lows from last autumn. Implied volatility may increase ahead of the inflation data release, making options a good way to manage risk. This strong trade report also provides Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, with reasons to maintain a firm monetary policy. High interest rates, which have contributed to the peso’s strength in 2025, are less likely to decrease sharply if the economy continues to perform well. This creates a policy divergence with the U.S. Federal Reserve, supporting a stronger MXN. We will be monitoring the upcoming manufacturing PMI and inflation reports for January 2026 closely to confirm this trend. If those figures also show strength, it would strengthen the case for a stronger peso in the first quarter. Any short-term dip in the MXN could be seen as a buying opportunity. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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